\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB), piyasa beklentileri do\u011frultusunda politika faizini %0 seviyesinde de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Banka, SNB nezdinde tutulan bankalar\u0131n vadesiz mevduatlar\u0131n\u0131n belirli bir e\u015fi\u011fe kadar politika faizinden nemaland\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcncellenen projeksiyonlar\u0131nda SNB, 2026 \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu tahminini \u00f6nceki %0,6 seviyesinden %0,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti. Merkez bankas\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ana riskin k\u00fcresel ekonomideki geli\u015fmeler oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bug\u00fcn politika faizini %0\u2019da sabit tutma karar\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7reli politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n mevcut parasal tampon d\u00fczeyinden memnun oldu\u011funu teyit ediyor. 2026 enflasyon tahmininin %0,7\u2019ye s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 revize edilmesine ra\u011fmen, reel getiriler belirgin bi\u00e7imde negatif b\u00f6lgede kal\u0131yor. Bu durumun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 carry trade i\u015flemlerinde fonlama para birimi olarak olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131lmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131yla geni\u015fleyen faiz farklar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa-CHF odakl\u0131 opsiyon stratejilerine y\u00f6nelmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6zellikle ABD Dolar\u0131 veya Euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131, d\u00fczenli prim erimesinden (time decay) yararlanmay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Tarihsel olarak SNB\u2019nin faizi bu ultra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde sabit tuttu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde EUR\/CHF\u2019te ima edilen volatilite ortalamas\u0131 %6\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na iner; bu da k\u0131sa volatilite (short-vol) stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte SNB\u2019nin ana risk olarak k\u00fcresel ekonomik geli\u015fmelere vurgu yapmas\u0131, ani \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d giri\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmay\u0131 gerektiriyor. K\u00fcresel piyasa \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 kuyruk riski (tail-risk) korunmas\u0131 amac\u0131yla, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu dengeli yakla\u015f\u0131m, jeopolitik gerilimlerin artmas\u0131 veya k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu sonbaharda beklentiden daha fazla yava\u015flamas\u0131 halinde portf\u00f6yleri korur.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re bankalar\u0131n\u0131n vadesiz mevduatlar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca belirli bir e\u015fi\u011fe kadar %0\u2019dan nemaland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, yurti\u00e7i likidite dinamiklerinin de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde olas\u0131 fiyatlama uyumsuzluklar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in \u0130svi\u00e7re Ortalama Gecelik Faizi (SARON) vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 izlemesi gerekir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ay boyunca, bu para piyasas\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerinin banka likiditesindeki de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek hassasiyetini korumas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" SNB faizi %0\u2019da b\u0131rakt\u0131, mevduata s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 e\u015fikte faiz verecek: Oyun frang\u0131n carry trade cazibesini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. 2026 enflasyon %0,7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; k\u00fcresel risk vurgusu opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t