Hindistan rupisi, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na gidebilece\u011fi beklentilerinin dolar\u0131 desteklemesiyle USD\/INR paritesini 95,90\u2019a do\u011fru itti. Emtia taraf\u0131nda, 19 Ekim vadeli MCX Ham Petrol kontrat\u0131, g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan %1 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 8.900 Rs seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; kontrat daha \u00f6nce 8.496 Rs civar\u0131ndaki yeni iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden toparlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Daha geni\u015f FX cephesinde, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 101,23 ile sekiz haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrini koruyarak dolar talebini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Petrol, \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan\u2019\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Genel Kurulu konu\u015fmas\u0131nda, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n \u201cya anla\u015fma ya da imha\u201d ima eden a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019ye boyun e\u011fmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesiyle destek buldu. Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131, rupi gibi ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 para birimleri \u00fczerinde genellikle bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Bu arada aktivite verileri de Fed\u2019in \u015fahin (hawkish) anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 destekledi: S&P Global\u2019in \u00f6nc\u00fc Hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131 A\u011fustos\u2019taki 56,5\u2019ten 58,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek 56,0 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131; \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131 ise 53,9\u2019dan 57,0\u2019ye t\u0131rmanarak 53,5 tahmininin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/INR, 20 periyotluk EMA olan 95,5722\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, RSI 59,7 seviyesindeydi; destek 95,57 civar\u0131nda, diren\u00e7 96,10\u2019da izlenirken, bu seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 97,00\u2019a do\u011fru yeniden testin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/INR paritesi 95,90\u2019a do\u011fru h\u0131zlan\u0131rken, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki toparlanman\u0131n etkisiyle Hindistan rupisi \u00fczerinde belirgin bir bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019ten fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithalatla kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 nedeniyle, artan enerji maliyetleri yerel para birimi \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda rupi zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131 ve USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi 101,23 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, ABD Hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 58,7\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 gibi kuvvetli veriler bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik aktivite, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funa dayanak sa\u011flayarak y\u0131l bitmeden ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar e\u011filiminden yararlanmak i\u00e7in USD\/INR bull call spread stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilim de bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD bask\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 sert tutumu, MCX ham petrol\u00fc 8.496 Rs dip seviyesinden 8.900 Rs\u2019ye geri ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Tarihsel olarak, ani petrol s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 Hindistan\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcp h\u0131zl\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek rupide de\u011fer kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, enerji piyasas\u0131 risklerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla Ekim vadeli MCX ham petrol kontratlar\u0131nda uzun (long) pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan USD\/INR, 20 periyotluk \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama olan 95,57\u2019nin \u00fczerinde rahat bir \u015fekilde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Parite 96,10 seviyesindeki yak\u0131n direncin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa, t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvesi olan 97,00\u2019a do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ivmelenme bekliyoruz. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, bu olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 yakalamak \u00fczere Ekim sonu vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00f6nerisini payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupide kan kayb\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: Petrol s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin beklentisi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; USD\/INR 95,90\u2019a y\u00f6neldi. DXY 101,23\u2019te. Teknikte 95,57 destek, 96,10 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 97,00 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68791","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t