Avustralya dolar\u0131 (AUD), \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve hem 5 hem de 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizlerinin %5 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kaybetti. AUD\/USD paritesi, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 0,7118 zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 0,7039\u20130,7041 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken; ABD 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 17 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %4,99\u2019a, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri ise 15,5 baz puan y\u00fckseli\u015fle %5,11\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu seviye 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey olarak kaydedildi. Faizlerdeki hareketle birlikte ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,57 y\u00fckselerek 101,25\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri aktivitenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret etti: S&P Global \u0130malat PMI 53,9\u2019dan 57\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek 53,5\u2019lik beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; Hizmetler PMI ise 56,5\u2019ten 58,7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karak 56 tahmininin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re, piyasada Ekim ay\u0131 i\u00e7in 25 baz puanl\u0131k Fed hamlesinin fiyatlanmas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %52\u2019den %66\u2019ya y\u00fckselirken, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %93 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Avustralya\u2019da S&P Global Bile\u015fik PMI, imalat\u0131n daralmas\u0131 ve hizmetlerde yava\u015flama ile 52,7\u2019den 50,8\u2019e geriledi. S\u0131radaki g\u00fcndem maddesinde istihdam\u0131n -15,8 binden 20 bine d\u00f6nmesi, i\u015fsizli\u011fin ise %4,5\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n—\n
ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinin kritik %5 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde kalmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na AUD\/USD \u00fczerinde ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirisinin %5,11\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rayarak 2007 finansal krizinden bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen tepe seviyelere ula\u015fmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Avustralya dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak son derece cazip bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ABD ile Avustralya aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesinden faydalanmam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131rken, risk sermayemizin korunmas\u0131na da yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak istihdam verilerinde i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,5\u2019te kalmas\u0131 beklendi\u011finden, istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi kalemindeki olas\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k pariteyi 0,7040\u2019taki yak\u0131n vadeli deste\u011fin alt\u0131na kolayl\u0131kla itebilir. Tarihsel olarak, Fed\u2019in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6nemlerinde\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin ABD getirilerinin son kez bu seviyelere yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 2023 sonlar\u0131nda\u2014yerel ekonomik hedeflerin ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnleri takip eden k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede Avustralya dolar\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sert gerilemi\u015fti. K\u0131sa pozisyonlarda riski y\u00f6netmek ad\u0131na 0,7092 civar\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc basit hareketli ortalama diren\u00e7 k\u00fcmesinin hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss seviyeleri belirlenmesi uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n—\n
Ekim ay\u0131nda Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisinin %66\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesi ve Aral\u0131k olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde %93\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131yla, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin mevcut 101,25 seviyesinin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemin olu\u015fuyor. \u00d6zellikle ABD imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 57\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek beklenmedik bir dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k sergilemesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread stratejileriyle bu momentumu de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. Avustralya\u2019da bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131n 50,8\u2019e gerileyerek ivme kayb\u0131n\u0131 teyit etmesi, i\u00e7 ekonominin g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu durum da AUD\u2019de anlaml\u0131 bir toparlanma potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya devam edecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD tahvil getirileri %5\u2019i a\u015f\u0131nca AUD\/USD %1\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, DXY 101,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD PMI\u2019lar\u0131 Fed art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %66\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; zay\u0131f Avustralya PMI bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50028,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t