NZD\/USD Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve Makro S\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcler<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, NZD\/USD paritesi 0,5700 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken 0,5600 seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz; parite, temmuz ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Bu b\u00f6lge nisan ay\u0131ndan beri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban i\u015flevi g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve olas\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (reversal) stratejileri i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir alan. Parite yerle\u015fik band\u0131n\u0131n alt k\u0131sm\u0131nda bulunurken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir karar noktas\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD ve Yeni Zelanda tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki makas a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor. Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 gelen ABD i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketlerinin deste\u011fiyle iki y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili getirisi %4,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Bu arada Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ) yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde Resmi Nakit Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (OCR) %2,75\u2019te sabit tuttu ve aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar ilave art\u0131\u015f sinyali vermedi; ABD taraf\u0131nda ise yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 28 Ekim\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %55 seviyesinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Faiz fark\u0131 Kiwi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor ve k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015flerin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeleri de yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; zira \u00c7in, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat pazar\u0131 ve toplam ihracat\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu sat\u0131n al\u0131yor; buna y\u0131ll\u0131k 6 milyar NZD\u2019yi a\u015fan s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ihracat\u0131 da dahil. \u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Xi\u2019nin bug\u00fcn Beyaz Saray\u2019da Ba\u015fkan Trump ile yapaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme, analistler g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u201ct\u00f6ren a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131, anla\u015fma hafif\u201d olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklese de ani piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeden \u00e7\u0131kabilecek beklenmedik ticari s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeler, Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 gibi risk hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek emtia para birimlerini h\u0131zla etkiler.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem Taktikleri ve Risk Parametreleri<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (Stochastic RSI) 7 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde bulunuyor; bu da son sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u201cuzad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak bu momentum g\u00f6stergesi, yatay bant piyasas\u0131 fazlar\u0131nda 10\u2019un alt\u0131na indi\u011finde vakalar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %68\u2019inde ortalamaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (mean reversion) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle fiyat\u0131n 0,5600 ana destek b\u00f6lgesi civar\u0131nda dengelenmesi halinde uzun (long) pozisyon aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Band\u0131n alt\u0131ndan uzun pozisyona girilmesi durumunda, ana k\u00e2r hedeflerimiz 0,5700 ve 0,5750\u2019deki yak\u0131n diren\u00e7 seviyeleri olacakt\u0131r. Risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; zira 0,5600 alt\u0131nda bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, toparlanma senaryomuzu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar ve daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD, nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana olu\u015fan band\u0131n yeniden alt ucuna yak\u0131n; taban 0,5600 civar\u0131nda. Parite 0,5700\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu seviye temmuz ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00f6lge ve RBNZ\u2019nin 8 Temmuz\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere yak\u0131n. O tarihten bu yana RBNZ, Resmi Nakit Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 iki kez art\u0131rarak 2 Eyl\u00fcl itibar\u0131yla %2,75\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. ABD\u2019de ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketleri sonras\u0131, Fed\u2019in politika patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerin de\u011fi\u015fimini takip ederek iki y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirileri \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. <\/p>\n
RBNZ\u2019nin kendi patika projeksiyonu, 28 Ekim karar\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik \u00f6ng\u00f6rmezken aral\u0131kta %3,00\u2019e bir ad\u0131m i\u015faret ediyor. Fed de 28 Ekim\u2019de toplan\u0131yor; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat pazar\u0131 olan \u00c7in, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Ba\u015fkan Xi\u2019nin Beyaz Saray\u2019da Ba\u015fkan Trump ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesiyle odakta; t\u00f6ren plan\u0131nda 479 askeri personel detay\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. Teknik olarak 0,5700 seviyesi \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc taban olma \u00f6zelli\u011fini yitirdi; 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den bu yana her g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015fta korunmu\u015ftu. 0,5750 ise pazartesi ve sal\u0131 g\u00fcnleri y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131; destek 0,5650\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerinde bulunurken band\u0131n taban\u0131 0,5600 civar\u0131nda. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stoch RSI bir haftad\u0131r 7 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, 0,5600 alt\u0131nda bir kapan\u0131\u015f band\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kiwi\u2019de kritik viraj: NZD\/USD 0,5700 alt\u0131nda, 0,5600 band taban\u0131 testte. Stoch RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m; tepki potansiyeli var. Ancak ABD-NZ faiz fark\u0131 ve Xi-Trump g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi oynakl\u0131k riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50135,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t