Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fckselmesiyle hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 ivme kaybetti; bu durum hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndaki risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (risk-on) tonunu tersine \u00e7evirdi. Petrol, bir haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan, bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde olumlu bir ilerleme olmamas\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 desteklemesiyle istikrar kazan\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya dair belirsizlik, enerji arz\u0131nda kesinti riskini ve bunun hisse senetleri \u00fczerindeki zincirleme etkilerini g\u00fcndemde tuttu.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda dolar, Fed\u2019in y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce\u2014muhtemelen Ekim kadar erken\u2014bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha yapabilece\u011fi beklentilerinin s\u00fcrmesiyle yedi haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine t\u0131rmand\u0131. Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131ndaki bu de\u011fi\u015fim alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015ftururken, enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki geni\u015f emtia kompleksini de zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Chris Beauchamp d\u00f6rt y\u0131ld\u0131r IG\u2019de g\u00f6rev yap\u0131yor ve BBC ile Sky News\u2019in yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u00f6nde gelen finans kanallar\u0131na da \u00e7\u0131kan d\u00fczenli bir medya yorumcusudur.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, S&P 500 gibi ana endekslerde koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak hisse senedi piyasas\u0131nda s\u00fcrecek volatiliteye pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolara do\u011fru yeniden y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc endi\u015felerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 mevcut ortamda, hisse piyasalar\u0131 ani sat\u0131\u015flara kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bir ayda %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00fcretim maliyetleri artt\u0131k\u00e7a hisselerde buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %3 ila %5\u2019lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik gerilimlerden yararlanmak i\u00e7in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ve Brent petrolde uzun (long) call opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131na girilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu bo\u011fazdan g\u00fcnl\u00fck ge\u00e7i\u015fler k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini olu\u015fturuyor; olas\u0131 bir kapanma tehdidi fiyatlarda sert s\u0131\u00e7ramalar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kataliz\u00f6r anlam\u0131na geliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolara do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir hareketi hedeflerken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa call spread stratejilerini kullanabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) 106,20 civar\u0131nda yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda i\u015flem yapmak i\u00e7in de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n bu Ekim ay\u0131nda Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131yla, dolar\u0131n euro veya yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda call opsiyonlar\u0131yla al\u0131nmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Dolar\u0131n s\u00fcregelen g\u00fcc\u00fc muhtemelen Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutacak; burada k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar ve y\u00fckselen getiriler nedeniyle alt\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa sat\u0131\u015fa (short) ya da bear put spread stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Alt\u0131n, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi %4,3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tarihsel olarak zorlanma e\u011filiminde; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha y\u00fcksek getiriler, getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e di\u011fer ana emtialar\u0131n da benzer \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrol ve tahvil getirilerindeki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f risk-on havas\u0131n\u0131 bozdu: hisse senetleri k\u0131r\u0131lgan. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi Brent\/WTI\u2019yi desteklerken dolar DXY\u2019de zirvede; alt\u0131n ve emtialar bask\u0131da. Opsiyonlu korunma g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t