ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi (getirisi), yakla\u015f\u0131k 19 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine t\u0131rmanarak %5,10\u2019un hemen alt\u0131nda ve eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131 zirveleri olan %5\u2019in biraz \u00fczerinin de \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu hareket, Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Michael Barr\u2019\u0131n enflasyonu %2\u2019ye geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, istihdama y\u00f6nelik risklerin ise azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Y\u00fckseli\u015fi, S&P Global \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI anketleri izledi; veriler beklentilerin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde gelirken, fiyat endeksleri Ekim 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Emtia taraf\u0131nda Brent petrol, \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u00fckseldi; \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Peze\u015fkiyan, BM konu\u015fmas\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda m\u00fczakereyi reddetti.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri, 28 Ekim\u2019de bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %73 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Fed 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri ertesi g\u00fcn yeniden %5\u2019in alt\u0131na gerilemi\u015fti; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, sonraki konu\u015fma ile veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fimi getiriyi yukar\u0131 itti. S\u00f6z konusu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan d\u00f6rt seans boyunca g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015flar %5\u2019in hemen alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; son y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgas\u0131 ise a\u011fustos sonlar\u0131nda %4,60\u2019\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinden ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler de e\u015f zamanl\u0131 y\u00fckselmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n
10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirisinin %5,10\u2019un \u00fczerine itmesiyle tahvil piyasas\u0131nda ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir momentum g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu seviye 2007\u2019den bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen bir zirve. Fed \u00dcyesi Barr\u2019\u0131n daha fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc makro verilerin bunu desteklemesi, getiriler \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, \u015fahin (hawkish) ortam\u0131 dikkate alacak \u015fekilde geleneksel sabit getirili stratejilerin gecikmeksizin yeniden konumland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n\n
28 Ekim\u2019de %73 olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatlanan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma i\u00e7in faiz opsiyonlar\u0131 ve SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinin hedeflenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6zellikle TLT gibi uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak, portf\u00f6yleri koruyabilir; zira tahvil volatilitesini \u00f6l\u00e7en MOVE Endeksi 110 puan civar\u0131ndaki son ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 2023 sonlar\u0131nda benzer seviyelere s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, uzun vadeli tahvil sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 TLT\u2019nin birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde %10\u2019dan fazla gerilemesiyle b\u00fcy\u00fck kazan\u00e7lar sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda Brent petrol\u00fcn yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun Fed\u2019i agresif tutmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Bu emtia ivmesinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nabilir veya do\u011frudan Brent petrol al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u015flem edilebilir. Artan enerji maliyetleri ile daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fimi, volatilite odakl\u0131 opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yan bir ortam yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 19 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde: %5,10 e\u015fi\u011fi test ediliyor. Barr\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin mesaj\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc PMI\u2019lar art\u0131\u015f\u0131 besledi; Brent 100 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde, Ekim\u2019de %73 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50001,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t