WTI, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler ve ABD\u2019den gelen yeni stok verilerini tartarken be\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rarak toparland\u0131. Kontrat g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 88,27 dolarla iki haftay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en zay\u0131f seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn\u00fc %2,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131da tamamlad\u0131. ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio, \u0130ran\u2019la son temaslar\u0131 \u201columlu, ancak bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 de\u011fildi\u201d s\u00f6zleriyle nitelendirerek, bunun \u00f6nceki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin devam\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n\n
A\u00e7\u0131klamalar, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc New York\u2019taki Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Genel Kurulu marj\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen dolayl\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran temaslar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Reuters, Kpler\u2019in \u00f6nc\u00fc verilerine at\u0131fla Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en emtia gemisi say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00f6rtten \u00fc\u00e7e geriledi\u011fini ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 15 olan son 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n da alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi; bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken Suudi Arabistan Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 yeniden devreye ald\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak EIA, ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta 2,969 milyon varil artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; piyasalar bir \u00f6nceki haftaki 0,64 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 0,7 milyon varillik stok \u00e7ekili\u015fi bekliyordu.<\/p>\n\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn be\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini k\u0131rarak 92 dolar band\u0131na geri d\u00f6nmesiyle birlikte, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. BM Genel Kurulu\u2019ndaki ABD-\u0130ran diplomatik temaslar\u0131nda bir \u201cat\u0131l\u0131m\u201d sa\u011flanamamas\u0131, jeopolitik risk primlerinin petrol piyasalar\u0131nda fiyatlanmaya devam edece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Piyasan\u0131n bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyalleri sindirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ortamda, sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki belirgin sevkiyat darbo\u011faz\u0131 \u2014 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ge\u00e7i\u015flerin son d\u00f6nemdeki 15\u2019lik ortalamaya k\u0131yasla \u00fc\u00e7e d\u00fc\u015fmesi \u2014 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00f6nemli bir risk olu\u015fturuyor. Tarihsel olarak, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bu kritik bo\u011fazdaki b\u00fcy\u00fck aksamalar, %10 veya daha fazla h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi. Bundan yararlanmak i\u00e7in, arz k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde ani yukar\u0131 hareketleri yakalamak amac\u0131yla WTI al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte, k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu tabloyu, ABD i\u00e7 piyasas\u0131ndan gelen ve 2,969 milyon varillik beklenmedik stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret eden son verilerle birlikte de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz. Y\u00fcksek i\u00e7 stok seviyeleri ile k\u00fcresel sevkiyat s\u00fcrt\u00fcnmesi aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, son derece \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez bir i\u015flem ortam\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Sermaye riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken 95-98 dolar band\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki diplomatik belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde genellikle y\u00fckselen z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (implied volatility) yak\u0131ndan izlemeli. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f say\u0131lar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde toparlanmazsa, fiziki arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, ABD\u2019de stoklar artsa bile fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 itmesi muhtemel. Net uzun e\u011filimin korunmas\u0131n\u0131, ancak olas\u0131 bir diplomatik at\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n WTI\u2019yi h\u0131zla 88,27 dolardaki son dip seviyesine geri \u00e7ekebilme riskine kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma (hedge) sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI be\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131p 92 dolara toparland\u0131: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de sevkiyat 3\u2019e inerken jeopolitik risk primi canl\u0131, ancak ABD stoklar\u0131 2,97 milyon art\u0131\u015fla bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Oynakl\u0131k t\u0131rmanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50030,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t