Federal Rezerv Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Michael Barr, enflasyonu yeniden %2 hedefine \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n muhtemelen gerekli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Barr, risk dengelerinin fiyat istikrar\u0131 lehine kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131na, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin risklerin ise azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar \u015fahin (hawkish) olarak de\u011ferlendirildi; FXS Speechtracker skoru 8\/10 ile 7\/10\u2019luk tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Mesajlar, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve sa\u011flam istihdam g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ra\u011fmen enflasyonun hedefe ikna edici \u015fekilde yakla\u015fmamas\u0131 nedeniyle politikan\u0131n daha \u00f6nce \u201ckonum d\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u015fimdi yeniden kalibre edildi\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n\n
Alg\u0131lanan Fed duru\u015funa ili\u015fkin g\u00f6stergeler de yukar\u0131 geldi; FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi 0,42 puan art\u0131\u015fla 148,81\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Piyasalarda ABD Dolar Endeksi y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini koruyarak 101,00\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve temmuz sonundan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,5 art\u0131da seyretti. Fed, fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve tam istihdam mandalar\u0131yla \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r; ana ara\u00e7 olarak faizleri belirler ve Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla y\u0131lda sekiz politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 yapar; komitede 12 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 bulunur. Niceliksel gev\u015feme (QE) krediyi geni\u015fletir ve genellikle dolar\u0131 (USD) zay\u0131flat\u0131r; niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (QT) bunun tersine \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r ve tipik olarak USD\u2019yi destekler.<\/p>\n\n
Fed\u2019in bug\u00fcn beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fahin tonda konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 101,00\u2019in \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla piyasa beklentilerinde belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n enflasyonun hen\u00fcz yeterince h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fumad\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131 vermesi, daha uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 d\u00f6nemine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ani y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131k pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 derhal yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmesini gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle Euro ve Yen gibi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirili para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Zararda (out-of-the-money) USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak veya EUR\/USD paritesinde ay\u0131 tipi put spread stratejileri kurmak bu momentumu de\u011ferlendirmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Tarihsel olarak Fed bu kadar \u015fahinle\u015fti\u011finde, dolar 2022 sonundaki gibi h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ralliyle DXY\u2019nin 114\u2019e do\u011fru t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131 hareketi k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yeniden \u00fcretme e\u011filiminde olabiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca piyasan\u0131n olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili getirilerinin s\u0131\u00e7rama yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, likit Hazine vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almay\u0131 veya iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. 2022 ve 2023\u2019teki agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ad\u0131mlar\u0131 gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fclerde ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmi\u015f; bu da tahvil fiyatlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan pozisyonlanman\u0131n tarihsel olarak g\u00fcvenilir bir yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri ve Nasdaq 100 gibi ana endeksler y\u00fckselen faizlere y\u00fcksek duyarl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterir ve muhtemelen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facakt\u0131r. Mevcut hisse portf\u00f6ylerini ani bir piyasa d\u00fczeltmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in S&P 500 \u00fczerinde koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda makroekonomik belirsizlik artt\u0131k\u00e7a, uzun straddle gibi volatilite bazl\u0131 stratejiler de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019den \u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz: Barr, enflasyonu %2\u2019ye indirmek i\u00e7in ek faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n gerekebilece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131. Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k y\u00fckselirken DXY 101\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131; piyasalar \u201cuzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu\u201d fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68766","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t