Alt\u0131n, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n iki ay\u0131n zirvesine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131n ve piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyreklerde Federal Rezerv\u2019den ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131yla ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.250\u20134.400 dolar band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 dengeleyici unsurlar ise Asya kaynakl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiziki talep, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan ETF varl\u0131klar\u0131nda toparlanma ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcregelen k\u00fcl\u00e7e al\u0131mlar\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n\n
Reel Hazine tahvil getirileri 20 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine dokunmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n ile reel getiriler aras\u0131ndaki al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ili\u015fki zay\u0131flad\u0131; bu de\u011fi\u015fim, artan ABD kamu borcuna ve finansal istikrar risklerine y\u00f6nelik endi\u015felerle ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. E\u011fer daha y\u00fcksek getiriler bunun yerine ABD ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u201chiperscaler\u201dlarla kaynak rekabetini yans\u0131t\u0131yorsa, bu arka plan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuz; BMI, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin beklentiden h\u0131zl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi halinde uzun vadede alt\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bununla birlikte, artan enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve yayg\u0131n parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma, tarihsel olarak erken d\u00f6nemdeki geri \u00e7ekilmelerin ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen bir unsur olan faaliyette yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret eden bir \u201cfren\u201d olarak resmediliyor; son d\u00f6nemdeki fiziki talep \u00f6rnek g\u00f6steriliyor: 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk sekiz ay\u0131nda \u00c7in, 2025\u2019in tamam\u0131ndakinden daha fazla alt\u0131n ithal etti; \u00c7in ETF\u2019leri ise A\u011fustos\u2019ta 44 ton ekledi ve bu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %18 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u20132026 d\u00f6neminde ortalama olarak 2010\u20132021\u2019e k\u0131yasla yakla\u015f\u0131k iki kat alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131 yapt\u0131 ve alt\u0131n\u0131n rezervlerdeki de\u011fer bazl\u0131 pay\u0131 art\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvillerini a\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara girerken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n savunmac\u0131 stratejilerden uzakla\u015f\u0131p alt\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131ma pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. K\u0131ymetli metal, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131na ra\u011fmen ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.250 ile 4.400 dolar aras\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bi\u00e7imde konsolide olarak kayda de\u011fer bir diren\u00e7 sergiledi. Alt\u0131n \u00fcst diren\u00e7 seviyesini a\u015fmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken, y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 veya bo\u011fa call spread\u2019lerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak y\u00fckselen reel Hazine tahvil getirileri alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201c\u00e7apa\u201d etkisi yarat\u0131rd\u0131; ancak bu geleneksel korelasyon tamamen bozulmu\u015f durumda. ABD ulusal borcu 40 trilyon dolara yakla\u015f\u0131rken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar artan mali istikrar riskleri nedeniyle kamu borcu yerine giderek daha fazla alt\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyor. Bu yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fim, y\u00fcksek getiri ortam\u0131ndan \u00e7ekinmeden rahatl\u0131kla call alabilmemiz anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n\n
2022\u20132026 d\u00f6neminde k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama 1.000 metrik tondan fazla alt\u0131n sat\u0131n almas\u0131yla e\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir fiziki destek g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca, k\u00fcresel resmi portf\u00f6ylerde toplam de\u011fer baz\u0131nda alt\u0131n rezervleri art\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvillerini geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. \u00c7in alt\u0131n ETF\u2019lerinin yaln\u0131zca A\u011fustos 2026\u2019da 44 ton eklemesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiziki talep, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturarak uzun pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Baz\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ekonomisinin alt\u0131na zarar verece\u011fini savunsa da, y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetleri ve uzun s\u00fcreli s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n nihayetinde k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yava\u015flatmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde alt\u0131n ilk etapta bask\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f, ancak ekonomik bask\u0131lar artt\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rallilerle toparlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Alt\u0131n\u0131n nihayet ata\u011fa kalkaca\u011f\u0131 bu makro d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc yakalamak i\u00e7in 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda vadesi dolacak call opsiyonlar\u0131nda birikim yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n ons 4.250\u20134.400\u2019da direniyor. Asya fiziki talebi, ETF toparlanmas\u0131 ve rekor merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131yla t\u00fcrevde yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131ma call stratejisi \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68760","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t