TD Securities, spek\u00fclatif pozisyonlanma, ETF ak\u0131mlar\u0131 ve merkez bankas\u0131 talebinin, ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u00fcrse bile alt\u0131na destek verdi\u011fini belirterek alt\u0131n\u0131n yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f faz\u0131na girdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Banka, Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra dolars\u0131zla\u015fma temalar\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019den gelen daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131mlar\u0131n, spot fiyatlarda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 destekleyen unsurlar oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kurum, \u00fc\u00e7 ilave Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n halihaz\u0131rda fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekerek, bu patikan\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilece\u011fini ifade etti. Ayr\u0131ca piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n uzun (long) pozisyon eklemek i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 alan\u0131 bulundu\u011funu, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k CTA ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde net-negatif seyretti\u011fini; sistematik fonlar\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl FOMC \u00f6ncesinde m\u00fctevaz\u0131 uzunlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti. Momentum pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u201colduk\u00e7a temiz\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlayan TD Securities, ihtiyari (discretionary) al\u0131mlar\u0131n ralliyi yeniden canland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; merkez bankas\u0131 birikiminin 2027\u2019ye kadar s\u00fcrmesini ve spot alt\u0131n\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 5.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilmesini olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, uzun al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (long call) veya bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kullanarak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir alt\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na agresif \u015fekilde pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Spot alt\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 2.750 dolar seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda konsolide olurken, piyasa 2027\u2019ye kadar 5.000 dolara do\u011fru hamle ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban in\u015fa ediyor. Bu t\u00fcrev stratejisi, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli geri \u00e7ekilmelere kar\u015f\u0131 riski tan\u0131mlarken, bir sonraki yukar\u0131 baca\u011f\u0131 kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 \u015fekilde de\u011ferlendirmemizi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin (WGC) son verileriyle de destekleniyor: K\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131 yaln\u0131zca bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda 483 ton gibi y\u00fcksek miktarda alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131 yaparak dolars\u0131zla\u015fma e\u011filimini tarihi bir tempoda s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ayr\u0131ca alt\u0131n borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 (ETF), y\u0131llar s\u00fcren \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirerek son iki \u00e7eyrekte net giri\u015fe d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f durumda; kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, egemen bor\u00e7 risklerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma arac\u0131 ar\u0131yor. Resmi sekt\u00f6r ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r talebinden olu\u015fan bu ikili motor, sar\u0131 metalde olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Pozisyonlanma taraf\u0131nda ise sistematik trend takip\u00e7ileri ve Emtia \u0130\u015flem Dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131 (CTA\u2019lar) son d\u00f6nemde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tasfiye ederek piyasadaki pozisyonlanmay\u0131 kayda de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u201ctemiz\u201d b\u0131rakt\u0131. Bu durum, makroekonomik momentum de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finde piyasay\u0131 yukar\u0131 takip edebilecek \u00f6nemli bir \u201ckenarda bekleyen\u201d sermaye oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bir sonraki momentum al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 dalgas\u0131 bir k\u0131sa s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 (short squeeze) tetiklemeden \u00f6nce uzun vadeli i\u015flemler (long futures) ve al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 edinerek bu temiz ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda yeni ralli sinyali: TD Securities\u2019e g\u00f6re spek\u00fclatif pozisyonlar, ETF giri\u015fleri ve merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131, Fed art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ra\u011fmen trendi yukar\u0131 \u00e7eviriyor; 2027\u2019de 5.000 dolar senaryosu g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t