{"id":68756,"date":"2026-09-23T14:51:40","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T14:51:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fedin-sahinligi-ve-avrupada-mali-endiseler-euro-sterlin-ve-yeni-baskilarken-dolar-iki-ayin-zirvesine-cikti\/"},"modified":"2026-09-23T14:51:40","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T14:51:40","slug":"fedin-sahinligi-ve-avrupada-mali-endiseler-euro-sterlin-ve-yeni-baskilarken-dolar-iki-ayin-zirvesine-cikti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fedin-sahinligi-ve-avrupada-mali-endiseler-euro-sterlin-ve-yeni-baskilarken-dolar-iki-ayin-zirvesine-cikti\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi ve Avrupa\u2019da mali endi\u015feler euro, sterlin ve yeni bask\u0131larken dolar iki ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD dolar\u0131, yedi seans \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckselip %2\u2019yi a\u015fan kazan\u00e7 kaydettikten sonra Temmuz sonundan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomi, b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji hisselerindeki ivme ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7 destekle birlikte, siyasi risk Avrupa para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken; yen, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BOJ) politika duru\u015funa ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan son sekiz g\u00fcnden yedisinde geriledi.<\/p>\n\n

FOMC \u00fcyelerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ikinci tur etkilerle \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fi endi\u015fesine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi gerekebilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Vadeli i\u015flemler Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %54 olarak fiyatlarken, 2026\u2019da iki ek art\u0131\u015f ihtimali yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 seviyesinde. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta piyasalar, GBPUSD b\u00fct\u00e7e teklifinin \u00f6ncesinde gerilerken, Kas\u0131m\u2019da politika faizinin %3,75\u2019ten %4\u2019e y\u00fckselme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %81\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Fransa\u2019da kamu borcunun 2027\u2019ye kadar GSYH\u2019nin %120\u2019sini a\u015fabilece\u011fi ve bor\u00e7 servis maliyetlerinin on y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda ikiye katlanmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi belirtiliyor; Fransa-Almanya getiri fark\u0131 Avrupa bor\u00e7 krizi d\u00f6nemindeki seviyelerin de \u00fczerine geni\u015fleyerek merkez bankas\u0131 tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 yeniden canland\u0131rd\u0131 ve EURUSD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken, USDJPY yukar\u0131 itti.<\/p>\n\n

ABD Dolar\u0131ndaki G\u00fc\u00e7 ve K\u00fcresel D\u00f6viz Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131ktan faydaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda agresif bi\u00e7imde uzun ABD dolar\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131na a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 104 civar\u0131ndaki kritik diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 sayesinde bu ivmenin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, yakla\u015fan Ekim Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde bu y\u00fckseli\u015f hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi risklerindeki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in EURUSD\u2019de \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Fransa-Almanya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getiri fark\u0131 85 baz puanla \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirveyi a\u015farak, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen %120 bor\u00e7\/GSYH oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 pani\u011finin derinle\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak Avrupa \u00fclke tahvil spread\u2019leri bu \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda euroda sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da k\u0131sa euro pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n

GBP ve JPY T\u00fcrevlerinde F\u0131rsatlar<\/h3>\n\n

Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta, Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015fan b\u00fct\u00e7e teklifi \u00f6ncesinde sterling\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk reversal stratejileriyle k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasa Kas\u0131m\u2019da faizin %4\u2019e y\u00fckselme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %81 olarak fiyatlasa da, 2022\u2019deki \u201cmini-b\u00fct\u00e7e\u201dnin sterlini tarihi dip olan 1,03 dolara s\u00fcr\u00fcklemi\u015f olmas\u0131 haf\u0131zalarda taze ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde riskten ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131r konumda tutuyor. GBPUSD\u2019de sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu stratejileri uygulamak, olas\u0131 bir maliye politikas\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n

Son olarak, BOJ\u2019un ek faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik taahh\u00fctte bulunmay\u0131 reddetmesiyle USDJPY\u2019de uzun pozisyon i\u00e7in net bir patika g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun yaln\u0131zca %1,8 seviyesinde, G7\u2019nin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olarak kalmas\u0131yla, ABD ile para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n daha da a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu istikrarl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini yakalamak i\u00e7in USDJPY call spread stratejilerine y\u00f6nelmeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dolar 7 seansl\u0131k ralliyle Temmuz\u2019dan beri zirvede: Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi ve jeopolitik risk DXY\u2019\u0131 destekliyor. Avrupa bor\u00e7 endi\u015feleri euroyu bask\u0131l\u0131yor; sterlin b\u00fct\u00e7e \u00f6ncesi zay\u0131f, yen BOJ belirsizli\u011fiyle geriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t