S&P Global\u2019in, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r ivmesine ili\u015fkin erken bir okuma sunan \u00f6nc\u00fc Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 ABD Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksleri\u2019ni (PMI) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 13:45 GMT\u2019de yay\u0131mlamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Veri seti \u0130malat PMI, Hizmetler PMI ve Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131 kaps\u0131yor; 50\u2019nin \u00fczerindeki de\u011ferler geni\u015flemeye, 50\u2019nin alt\u0131ndaki de\u011ferler daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Pek \u00e7ok resm\u00ee veri setinden \u00f6nce ayl\u0131k yay\u0131mlanan anketler; \u00fcretim, ihracat, kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131, istihdam ve stoklar gibi faaliyet kalemlerini takip ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir so\u011fumay\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor: \u00f6nc\u00fc \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131n 53,9\u2019dan 53,5\u2019e hafif gerilemesi beklenirken, Hizmetler PMI tahmini 56,5\u2019e k\u0131yasla 56,0 seviyesinde. EUR\/USD i\u00e7in hareketli ortalamalar etraf\u0131nda referans verilen teknik seviyeler aras\u0131nda 1,1620\u2019nin \u00fczerindeki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra 1,1526 ve 1,1542\u2019deki 55 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar ile 1,1711\u2019de ek bir referans noktas\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde belirtilen destekler 1,1353 ve 1,1324; at\u0131f yap\u0131lan momentum g\u00f6stergeleri ise 31 civar\u0131ndaki RSI ve 29 civar\u0131ndaki ADX.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verisi kritik bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 niteli\u011finde ve t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131nda s\u00fcregelen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Hizmetler PMI\u2019\u0131n 56 gibi sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir seviyede, imalat\u0131n ise 53,5\u2019te \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, ABD ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeye devam ediyor. Bu g\u00f6rece \u00fcst\u00fcn performans Fed\u2019i temkinli bir patikada tutarken, EUR\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1620 seviyesindeki kritik 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumdan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. PMI verilerinin bug\u00fcn beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 halinde paritenin 1,1324\u2019teki \u00f6nceki dip seviyesine do\u011fru gerilemesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor. Teknik g\u00f6stergeler de bu hareketi destekliyor; RSI\u2019\u0131n 31\u2019e yak\u0131n seyretmesi ve ADX\u2019in 29 seviyesinde bulunmas\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak ABD ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ayr\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, 2023 sonundaki trendde oldu\u011fu gibi, belirgin \u015fekilde dolar\u0131 destekledi; o d\u00f6nemde ABD GSYH\u2019si y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde %4,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken Euro B\u00f6lgesi yatay seyretti. Son Avrupa verileri, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir imalat zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; Almanya\u2019n\u0131n sanayi PMI\u2019\u0131 s\u0131k s\u0131k 45 puanl\u0131k daralma e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda s\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu keskin kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131k, ge\u00e7ici euro y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin 1,1526 ve 1,1542 civar\u0131ndaki 55 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,1353 destek seviyesini hedeflerken ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan ay\u0131 sat\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bear put spread) kullan\u0131labilir. Alternatif olarak, 1,1620 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak, dolar\u0131n bask\u0131n kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle prim toplamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn 13:45 GMT\u2019deki a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek, piyasan\u0131n resm\u00ee rakamlara tepkisine g\u00f6re kald\u0131ra\u00e7 ayarlamas\u0131 yapmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler 13:45 GMT\u2019de ABD \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019da: s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 so\u011fuma beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131n ekonomi diren\u00e7li. Bu tablo Fed\u2019i temkinli tutup dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir; EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,1620 alt\u0131nda ay\u0131 opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t