Petrol, Brent\u2019in 99 $\/varilin alt\u0131na gerilemesi ve WTI\u2019\u0131n 89 $\/varil civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan arz\u0131n gev\u015feyece\u011fi beklentisiyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. Brent alt\u0131 seanst\u0131r \u00fcst \u00fcste geriliyor; bu, A\u011fustos 2025\u2019ten bu yana en uzun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisi olurken, s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde toplam kay\u0131p %9,5\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131. Bununla birlikte Brent, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana h\u00e2l\u00e2 %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde art\u0131da. Suudi Arabistan, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 baypas eden ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn ta\u015f\u0131ma kapasitesine sahip Do\u011fu\u2011Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 yeniden devreye ald\u0131; bu geli\u015fme, Yanbu\u2019dan ihracat\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 beklentilerini destekledi. ABD\u2019de API verileri, ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 578 bin varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131n 1,7 milyon varil artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, benzin ve distilat stoklar\u0131 ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 2,2 milyon varil geriledi; g\u00f6zler \u015fimdi EIA raporunda. ABD do\u011falgaz\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; Henry Hub, A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 48\u2019de \u00fcretimin gerilemesi ve Kuzeydo\u011fu i\u00e7in daha serin hava tahminleriyle 3 $\/MMBtu\u2019nun \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ancak f\u0131rt\u0131na kaynakl\u0131 kesintiler talebi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Metaller taraf\u0131nda, \u00c7in\u2019in alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131 A\u011fustos\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k %39,3 art\u0131\u015fla 141,7 tona y\u00fckseldi; y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana giri\u015fler %72,2 art\u0131\u015fla rekor 1.141,2 tona \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00c7in alt\u0131n ETF\u2019leri A\u011fustos\u2019a kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 44 ton ekleyerek %18 art\u0131\u015f kaydederken, k\u00fcresel ETF varl\u0131klar\u0131 genel olarak yatay seyretti. Bak\u0131r, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme \u00f6ncesinde alt\u0131nc\u0131 seanst\u0131r y\u00fckselerek, \u015eanghay\u2019da katot stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 14.700 ton azalarak 43.900 tona gerilemesiyle \u00c7in\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan bulunabilirlikten destek buldu. Endonezya\u2019da Morowali End\u00fcstri Park\u0131\u2019ndaki \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k 4,2 milyon ton kapasiteye k\u0131yasla yakla\u015f\u0131k 100.000 ton nikel pik demir \u00fcretimini etkileyebilir. COTR verileri, net y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bak\u0131r pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n 3.981 lot azalarak 42.132\u2019ye indi\u011fini; al\u00fcminyum net uzunlar\u0131n\u0131n 11.623 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 77.423\u2019e geriledi\u011fini ve \u00e7inko net uzunlar\u0131n\u0131n 2.787 lot azalarak 29.946\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Tar\u0131mda, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n tah\u0131l ve baklagil hasad\u0131 22 Eyl\u00fcl itibar\u0131yla 33 milyon tona ula\u015ft\u0131 (+%10); 7 milyon hektar alanda hasat tamamland\u0131 (%61). Bu\u011fday \u00fcretimi %11 art\u0131\u015fla 25,3 milyon tona \u00e7\u0131karken, m\u0131s\u0131r \u00fcretimi 68 bin hektardan 340 bin tona ula\u015ft\u0131; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde 389 bin tondayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, Brent ve WTI \u00fczerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak ham petrolde k\u0131sa vadede ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Brent\u2019in 99 $ seviyesinin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve Suudi Do\u011fu\u2011Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 7 milyon varile kadar baypas kapasitesini yeniden devreye almas\u0131yla, yak\u0131n vadeli arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. API\u2019nin beklenmedik 1,7 milyon varillik stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n EIA verisiyle teyit edilip edilmeyece\u011fini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz; bu teyit, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini peki\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ABD do\u011falgaz\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyel g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve fiyatlar 3 $\/MMBtu\u2019nun \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken Henry Hub vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 48 eyaletlerindeki \u00fcretim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, ABD Kuzeydo\u011fusu\u2019nda sonbahara girerken serinleme e\u011filimleriyle birle\u015ferek, yak\u0131n vadede \u0131s\u0131nma talebini art\u0131rmaya aday. Ancak, b\u00f6lgesel t\u00fcketimi ge\u00e7ici olarak s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek f\u0131rt\u0131na kaynakl\u0131 elektrik kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 bu pozisyonlar\u0131n hedge edilmesi gerekti\u011fini vurguluyoruz.<\/p>\n
Baz metallere ili\u015fkin olarak, nikel t\u00fcrevlerinde taktiksel uzun pozisyonlar al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131, bak\u0131rda ise temkinli kal\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. El Ni\u00f1o\u2019nun tetikledi\u011fi kurakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n Endonezya\u2019da nikel pik demir \u00fcretimini 100.000 tona kadar azaltma riski, arz\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. \u00d6te yandan, \u015eanghay\u2019da bak\u0131r stoklar\u0131 43.900 ton ile \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede olsa da, net y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bak\u0131r pozisyonlar\u0131 alt\u0131 haftad\u0131r \u00fcst \u00fcste geriliyor; bu da daha net bir momentum sinyali olu\u015fana kadar beklenmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n t\u00fcrevlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde \u00f6neriyor; Asya\u2019dan gelen yo\u011fun talep \u00fczerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hedefliyoruz. \u00c7in\u2019in y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131n\u0131n %72\u2019nin \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015fla rekor 1.141,2 tona y\u00fckselmesi, b\u00f6lgede fiziksel ve ETF talebinin doygunluktan uzak oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel veriler, \u015eanghay\u2019daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiziksel primlerin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman k\u00fcresel fiyat rallilerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor; bu da mevcut geri \u00e7ekilmeleri cazip al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 h\u00e2line getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda tar\u0131m taraf\u0131nda bu\u011fday vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya put opsiyonlar\u0131yla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n rekor hasad\u0131yla bu\u011fday \u00fcretiminin y\u0131ll\u0131k %11 art\u0131\u015fla 25,3 milyon tona y\u00fckselmesi, piyasaya arz\u0131 art\u0131rarak k\u00fcresel arz endi\u015felerini azalt\u0131yor. Bu arz bask\u0131s\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel hasatlar\u0131n mevsimsel olarak y\u00fcksek seviyede tamamlanmas\u0131, tah\u0131l fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 derinle\u015fiyor: Brent 99$ alt\u0131, Suudi hatt\u0131 arz endi\u015fesini azalt\u0131yor; API stoklar\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz. ABD gaz\u0131 3$ \u00fcst\u00fc. \u00c7in alt\u0131n talebi rekor; bak\u0131r stoklar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu\u011fdayda Ukrayna hasad\u0131 bask\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t