Rupi \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131; USD\/INR paritesi, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya devam edece\u011fi beklentisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar\u0131n etkisiyle yakla\u015f\u0131k 95,72 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Dolar Endeksi %0,17 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 100,73\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak yedi haftay\u0131 a\u015fan s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 ise bu y\u0131l en az bir ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse %90 olarak fiyatlad\u0131. Petrol cephesi de g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc etkiledi: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda diplomatik temaslar\u0131n yeniden canland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan MCX 19 Ekim vadeli ham petrol kontrat\u0131 %1,43 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 8.520 rupiye gerileyerek iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Yurti\u00e7i veriler destekleyiciydi. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc (flash) HSBC Bile\u015fik PMI endeksi 54,3\u2019ten 56,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Piyasalarda parite 20 periyotluk EMA olan 95,53\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde tutunurken RSI 56 seviyesinde olu\u015ftu. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 95,53 civar\u0131nda destek ve 17 Eyl\u00fcl zirvesi olan 96,10 civar\u0131nda direnci izlerken, bunun \u00f6tesinde rekor seviye 97,10 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Fed ileti\u015fimi g\u00f6stergeleri bir miktar gev\u015fedi: FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi 2,11 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 148,39\u2019a inerken, FXS Speechtracker skoru tarihsel 5,7\/10 ortalamaya k\u0131yasla 5,6\/10 oldu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/INR paritesinde temkinli bir uzun (long) e\u011filimi korumas\u0131n\u0131 ve ilk a\u015famada 96,10 seviyesindeki yak\u0131n direnci hedeflemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Paritenin 20 periyotluk \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamas\u0131 olan 95,53\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde istikrar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, k\u0131sa vadeli momentumun belirgin \u015fekilde ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu trendi daha g\u00fcvenli oynamak i\u00e7in, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlarken 97,10\u2019daki t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir hareketten faydalanmak \u00fczere bull call spread stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum, CME FedWatch arac\u0131n\u0131n bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha neredeyse %90 olas\u0131l\u0131k vermesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor; bu da ABD tahvil getirilerini cazip tutuyor. Tarihsel olarak ABD ve Hindistan tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark darald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 geli\u015fen piyasalardan sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelebiliyor ve bu durum rupi \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan ABD enflasyon verileri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizler 96,10 bariyerinin \u00fczerinde bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n 56,5 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyreden Bile\u015fik PMI verisi ve varil ba\u015f\u0131na 73 dolara do\u011fru gerileyen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 gibi kuvvetli yurti\u00e7i dinamikler de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri, \u00fclkenin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel olarak %80\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde azalt\u0131yor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik tamponlar nedeniyle, rupi taraf\u0131nda keskin bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015ften ziyade kademeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle 95,00 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip out-of-the-money put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (prim toplamak amac\u0131yla) da de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d kalaca\u011f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenince rupi zay\u0131flad\u0131; USD\/INR 95,72\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. G\u00f6zler 95,53 deste\u011fi, 96,10 direnci ve 97,10 rekorunda; PMI ve d\u00fc\u015fen petrol tampon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t