USD\/JPY, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019nin askeri bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yedi g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yeniden a\u00e7abilece\u011fine dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 157,00\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131na geriledi, ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 157,50\u2019ye toparland\u0131. Seans zirvesi, \u00fc\u00e7 seansta ikinci kez 157,50\u2019nin \u00fczerindeki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019ya yeniden ula\u015ft\u0131; dip seviye ise Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan her seansta y\u00fckseldi. Brent Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 100 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u00f6nerisinin ko\u015fullu niteli\u011fi Japonya\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli dolar bazl\u0131 petrol faturas\u0131n\u0131 ya da dolar lehine getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi.<\/p>\n
Politika beklentileri oda\u011f\u0131 faiz fark\u0131nda tuttu. BoJ faizi 7\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 2 oyla al\u0131nan kararla %1,25 seviyesinde; bu, Nisan 1995\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. Asada ve Sato %1\u2019i tercih etti. Fed projeksiyonlar\u0131 politika faizini y\u0131l sonunda %4,1\u2019de g\u00f6sterirken, vadeli i\u015flemler Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,2\u2019ye i\u015faret ediyor; bu da Japonya\u2019ya k\u0131yasla 2,625 puanl\u0131k bir fark b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Japonya piyasalar\u0131 tatillerin ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor; \u00f6nc\u00fc imalat anketinin 54,8 civar\u0131nda gelmesi bekleniyor. ABD taraf\u0131nda Per\u015fembe 08:10 GMT ve Cuma 09:15 GMT\u2019de Williams, Per\u015fembe 12:50 GMT ve Cuma 18:00 GMT\u2019de Hammack, Per\u015fembe 13:00 GMT\u2019de Paulson konu\u015facak; ayr\u0131ca haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 196 bin sonras\u0131 201 bin seviyesinde a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Teknik seviyeler olarak 158,00 diren\u00e7 ve 156,50 destek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, Stoch RSI 32 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki dalgalanmalar\u0131n piyasay\u0131 sarsmas\u0131yla USD\/JPY paritesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Japonya ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %97\u2019sini ithal etti\u011fi i\u00e7in, daha ucuz enerji teorik olarak Yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeli. Ancak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7maya y\u00f6nelik ko\u015fullu teklifinin ard\u0131ndan Yen\u2019in kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 geri verdi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck; bu da jeopolitik man\u015fetlerin yaln\u0131zca k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flem f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 sundu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine belirgin bi\u00e7imde devam eden faiz fark\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. BoJ\u2019un faizi %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesine ra\u011fmen, ABD Dolar\u0131 varl\u0131klar\u0131 Yen cinsi varl\u0131klara k\u0131yasla 2,625 y\u00fczde puan daha y\u00fcksek getiri sunuyor; bu da ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemlerini (carry trade) olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 tutuyor. 156,50\u2019lik kilit destek seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece geri \u00e7ekilmelerde USD\/JPY al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, 158,00\u2019e do\u011fru yeniden bir hareketi hedefleyerek de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde yo\u011fun Fed konu\u015fmalar\u0131 ile ABD haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. ABD\u2019li politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n bu y\u0131l bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 daha desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde, getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n dolar lehine daha da a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 muhtemel. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI\u2019\u0131n bant alt\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nmesi gibi momentum g\u00f6stergelerimiz de bu y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosunu destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, \u00f6zellikle Tokyo bankalar\u0131n\u0131n tam kapasiteye d\u00f6nmesiyle birlikte Japon yetkililerden gelebilecek ani m\u00fcdahale riskini y\u00f6netmeliyiz. Tarihsel olarak Japon otoriteler kur kontrol\u00fc ama\u00e7l\u0131 \u201crate check\u201d uygulamalar\u0131na ba\u015fvurdu ve 158,00 seviyesi civar\u0131nda Yen al\u0131m\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde piyasaya girdi; bu durum 2024\u2019teki yo\u011fun m\u00fcdahaleler s\u0131ras\u0131nda da dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Portf\u00f6ylerimizi korumak i\u00e7in 156,50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri yerle\u015ftirmeli ve parite 158,00\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131rsa k\u00e2r\u0131 realize etmeye haz\u0131r olmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz man\u015feti USD\/JPY\u2019yi 157 alt\u0131na \u00e7ekse de parite 157,50 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019ya d\u00f6nd\u00fc. As\u0131l tema faiz fark\u0131: Fed-BoJ 2,625 puan. 158 diren\u00e7, 156,50 destek; m\u00fcdahale riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50081,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t