Euro\u2019nun A\u011fustos\u2019taki y\u00fckseli\u015finin yakla\u015f\u0131k %80\u2019i, ABD\u2019de faiz beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 sonucunda geri verilmi\u015f durumda. EUR\/USD, Temmuz sonundaki yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1350 seviyesinden A\u011fustos\u2019un ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda 1,1700\u2019in biraz \u00fczerine y\u00fckseldikten sonra, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,1450\u2019nin alt\u0131na gerileyerek Temmuz sonundan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve ard\u0131ndan bu b\u00f6lge yak\u0131n\u0131nda dengelendi. ECB, 10 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de mevduat faizini %2,50\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti; sava\u015f\u0131n enerji maliyetlerini art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bu ikinci art\u0131\u015f oldu. Vadeli fiyatlamalar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u00fc\u00e7 ya da d\u00f6rt ek hamleye i\u015faret ediyor. Her bir art\u0131\u015f, Fed\u2019in %3,875\u2019lik orta noktas\u0131yla aras\u0131ndaki 1,375 puanl\u0131k fark\u0131 daraltacak olsa da, ECB yetkilileri piyasalar\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma derecesine itiraz ediyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi verileri de zay\u0131flad\u0131. Avrupa Komisyonu\u2019nun Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni -16 tahmine ve A\u011fustos\u2019taki -15,5 seviyesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k -16,5 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. A\u00e7\u0131klanacak HCOB PMI verilerinin ise 52\u2019den 51,5\u2019e gerilemesi; hizmetler PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 51,7, imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 52,7 seviyesinde gelmesi bekleniyor. Almanya Ifo anketi Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. ABD taraf\u0131nda S&P Global \u00f6nc\u00fc hizmetler PMI\u2019\u0131 56,5\u2019ten 56\u2019ya gerilemesi beklenirken, Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Barr 14:05 GMT\u2019de konu\u015facak. Teknik seviyelerde 1,1500 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 1,1550 civar\u0131 diren\u00e7 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken; 1,1400\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczeri ve 1,1350 yak\u0131nlar\u0131 destek konumunda. Stoch RSI 10\u2019un alt\u0131nda ve bu seviye Mart ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011fer.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin etkisiyle paritenin 1,1450\u2019nin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 sonucu Euro\u2019nun A\u011fustos kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse tamam\u0131n\u0131 sildi\u011fini izliyoruz. Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket, ABD ekonomisinin tarihsel olarak Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilindik bir ekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, ABD\u2019de son d\u00f6nemde %3,0 seviyesindeki GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 %0,2\u2019lik geni\u015flemesine k\u0131yasla belirgin \u015fekilde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; bu durum Fed\u2019e faizleri y\u00fcksek seviyelerde tutmak i\u00e7in daha fazla alan sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Vadeli piyasalar, Fed\u2019in %3,875\u2019lik orta noktas\u0131na k\u0131yasla fark\u0131 kapatmak \u00fczere birden fazla ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar buna aktif bi\u00e7imde kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Lagarde ile Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Vuj\u010di\u0107 daha \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sinyali vererek, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n gere\u011finden fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Tarihsel olarak, merkez bankas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131 piyasan\u0131n agresif beklentilerini kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, para birimi bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son ekonomik veriler de daha g\u00fcvercin bir ECB duru\u015funu destekliyor; Euro B\u00f6lgesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni -16,5\u2019e geriledi. HCOB Euro B\u00f6lgesi PMI tahmininin 51,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle i\u015f aktivitesindeki zay\u0131flama, agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7elendirmeyi daha da zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu yava\u015flama, hanehalklar\u0131n\u0131n harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131st\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ECB\u2019nin faizleri daha fazla art\u0131rmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duyaca\u011f\u0131 talep kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta, be\u015f ECB konu\u015fmas\u0131 ve kritik i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketlerinden olu\u015fan yo\u011fun bir takvim var; bu da oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Lagarde\u2019\u0131n temkinli tonuyla uyumlu herhangi bir mesaj, Euro\u2019nun kalan deste\u011fini de zay\u0131flatabilir. Bu arada, ABD hizmetler PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 56 seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu da b\u00fcy\u00fcme fark\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kararak ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131lmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, parite 1,1500 direncinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece EUR\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimimizi koruyoruz. Stokastik RSI\u2019n\u0131n 10\u2019un alt\u0131na inmesi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131na ve 1,1500\u2019e do\u011fru ge\u00e7ici bir tepki ihtimaline i\u015faret etse de, bu y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 1,1400 ve ard\u0131ndan 1,1350 desteklerinin hedeflenmesini, koruyucu zarar-kes seviyelerinin ise 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (1,1550) hemen \u00fczerinde tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Euro\u2019nun A\u011fustos rallisi neredeyse silindi: Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenince EUR\/USD 1,1450 alt\u0131na indi. ECB art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 fiyatlansa da yetkililer temkinli, Euro B\u00f6lgesi verileri zay\u0131f. 1,1500-1,1550 diren\u00e7; 1,1400\/1,1350 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t