Meksika pesosu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da geriledi; USD\/MXN 17,29\u2019a y\u00fckselerek 17,26\u2019daki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve kay\u0131p %0,4\u2019\u00fc a\u015ft\u0131. Fed\u2019in federal fon oran\u0131n\u0131 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %3,75\u20134,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltmesi ve Banxico\u2019nun gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc sonland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan politika faizini %6,50\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131yla birlikte, Meksika\u2013ABD faiz fark\u0131 MXN lehine %2,50\u2019ye darald\u0131; bu, 2015\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye. Meksika\u2019n\u0131n a\u011fustos perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda -%0,2\u2019den -%0,1\u2019e iyile\u015fse de %0,2 art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 da %2,9\u2019dan %1,8\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6nceki piyasa hareketlerinde USD\/MXN\u2019nin Nisan 2020\u2019de 25,78\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra Nisan 2024\u2019te 16,26\u2019ya geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, parite \u015fu anda 17,1558\u2019deki 50\/100\/200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA k\u00fcmelenmesinin \u00fczerinde bulunuyor. Grafikte diren\u00e7 18,1651 ve 21,0808 seviyelerinde izlenirken, destek 17,155 ve 16,8866\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; RSI (14) 65,1 seviyesinde. Odak, Banxico\u2019nun faiz karar\u0131 ile ABD\u2019de \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar, istihdam verileri ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenine \u00e7evrilirken, Prime Terminal, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin yorumlar\u0131 sonras\u0131 aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %90 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, paritenin 17,26\u2019daki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 (SMA) a\u015fmas\u0131yla USD\/MXN\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kaymaya pozisyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Spot fiyat\u0131n 17,29\u2019un \u00fczerine k\u0131rmas\u0131yla teknik e\u011filim y\u00fckseli\u015fe d\u00f6nd\u00fc; bu da k\u0131sa MXN (peso aleyhine) pozisyonlanmay\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde cazip hale getiriyor. Bu ivmeden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/MXN al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fimin temel itici g\u00fcc\u00fc, ABD ile Meksika aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla daralarak %2,50\u2019ye gerilemesi ve 2015\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye inmesi. Tarihsel e\u011filimler, ta\u015f\u0131ma (carry) tamponu inceldi\u011finde yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n uzun peso pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla kapatma e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu ve bunun paritede sert yukar\u0131 hareketleri tetikledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Banxico\u2019nun politika faizini %6,50\u2019de sabit tutarken Fed\u2019in ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi nedeniyle, bu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme s\u00fcrecinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda h\u0131zlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Ek bask\u0131, Meksika\u2019n\u0131n son yurti\u00e7i verilerinden geliyor: A\u011fustos perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 daralarak beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131larken y\u0131ll\u0131k h\u0131z %1,8\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131. Bu ekonomik so\u011fuma, piyasada aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar bir ABD faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %90\u2019a y\u00fckselmesiyle birle\u015fti\u011finde, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde destekliyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n peso bazl\u0131 varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, s\u00fcregelen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak veya USD\/MXN vadeli kontratlar\u0131 alarak hedge etmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Peso\u2019da alarm zilleri: USD\/MXN 17,29 ile 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. Fed \u015fahin, Banxico pas; faiz fark\u0131 2015\u2019ten beri dipte. Zay\u0131f perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, y\u00fckseli\u015f\/n\u00f6tr MXN riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t