ABD Hazine\u2019sinin uzun vadeli tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, piyasalar\u0131 beklenen y\u00f6ne \u00e7evirmekte ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z kald\u0131; zira g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 matemati\u011finden ziyade uzun vadeli getirileri ve petrol\u00fc izledi. 22 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ons ba\u015f\u0131na 65,38 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken alt\u0131n 4.322,95 dolardayd\u0131; alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131 66,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu seviye, Fed\u2019in politika faizini \u00e7eyrek puan art\u0131rarak %3,75-%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltti\u011fi ve bu y\u0131l bir art\u0131\u015f daha \u00f6ng\u00f6ren medyan patikay\u0131 i\u015faretledi\u011fi 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e k\u0131yasla %4,5 daha y\u00fcksekti. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 ekside kal\u0131rken, ocak ay\u0131ndaki 121,58 dolarl\u0131k zirvesine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %46 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da seyretti; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri yeniden %5\u2019in alt\u0131na inerken ve Brent, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 yeniden devreye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberleriyle 105 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki seviyelerden 104 dolara do\u011fru gerilese bile.<\/p>\n
Hazine\u2019nin 10 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki ilk geni\u015fletilmi\u015f operasyonu, 6,0 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00fcst limite kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 10-20 y\u0131l vadelerde 5,2 milyar dolarl\u0131k al\u0131m yapt\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri, a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndaki duyuru g\u00fcn\u00fcnde %5,196 iken 14 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e gelindi\u011finde %5,353\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez %5\u2019e dokundu ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f iki haftada %4,8 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Mali veriler bozuldu: \u0130lk 11 ayda a\u00e7\u0131k 1.966 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131 ve bor\u00e7 faiz \u00f6demeleri 1 trilyon dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. Ancak getirileri, daha s\u0131cak \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon ve petrol y\u00f6nlendirdi; 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 baz puan artt\u0131. Birincil piyasadaki kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar operasyona 10,5 milyar dolarl\u0131k teklif sundu ve mekanik, k\u0131sa vadeli bonolar\u0131n (bill) ihra\u00e7 edilmesine dayan\u0131rken Fed\u2019in bill al\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u011fustos ortas\u0131ndan bu yana s\u0131f\u0131rd\u0131; 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 18 Eyl\u00fcl itibar\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,93\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. Geni\u015fletilmi\u015f geri al\u0131mlar 4 Kas\u0131m\u2019a kadar s\u00fcrecek.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerine, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda federal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izlemek yerine uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili getirileri ile Brent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerine odaklanmalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Mevcut piyasa dinamikleri, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ile 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine getirisi aras\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir negatif korelasyona i\u015faret ediyor; bu ili\u015fki, parasal ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde tarihsel olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k -0,7 seviyesine kadar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri kritik %5 e\u015fi\u011fi civar\u0131nda seyrederken, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki pozisyonlanma do\u011frudan tahvil piyasas\u0131ndaki dalgalanmalara kar\u015f\u0131 hedge edilmelidir.<\/p>\n
Analizimiz, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 104-105 dolar band\u0131nda dalgalanan Brent\u2019in, enflasyon beklentileri ve uzun vadeli getiriler \u00fczerinde birincil itici g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 %10\u2019luk bir y\u00fckseli\u015f, haftalar i\u00e7inde 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon telafi (breakeven) oranlar\u0131n\u0131 15-20 baz puan art\u0131rma e\u011filiminde olup k\u0131ymetli metallere an\u0131nda bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f t\u00fcrev i\u015flemlerini uygulamadan \u00f6nce uzun vadeli tahvil getirilerindeki bu ani kaymalar\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli petrol opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
4 Kas\u0131m\u2019a kadar s\u00fcrecek Hazine\u2019nin geni\u015fletilmi\u015f geri al\u0131m program\u0131, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f call ve put opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlamalardan yararlanmak i\u00e7in benzersiz bir pencere sunuyor. Bu geri al\u0131mlar finansal sisteme yeni likidite enjekte etmedi\u011finden, getirilerde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek ge\u00e7ici d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f call opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in cazip bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olu\u015fturur. Kas\u0131m d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken volatilitenin s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da i\u015flemcilerin sert getiri s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131nda prim al\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Fed politika faizini yak\u0131n zamanda %3,75-%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltmi\u015f olsa da t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcileri piyasan\u0131n bu k\u0131sa vadeli ayarlamalar\u0131 zaten fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dikkate almal\u0131d\u0131r. Tarihsel veriler, Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sonuna yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda uzun vadeli getirilerin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman politika faizinden ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun yerine ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile enerji girdilerini izledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n tam olarak belirginle\u015fmesiyle beklenen sert fiyat hareketlerini yakalamak i\u00e7in, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde straddle gibi uzun volatilite stratejilerinin kurgulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Tahvil geri al\u0131m\u0131 ve Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasay\u0131 \u00e7eviremedi: g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriyi ve Brent\u2019i izliyor. %5 e\u015fi\u011fi kritik; opsiyonlarda hedge, Kas\u0131m\u2019a dek volatilite f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50053,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t