{"id":68709,"date":"2026-09-22T23:52:16","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T23:52:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fedin-sikilasma-beklentileri-dolari-desteklerken-dolar-endeksi-100un-uzerine-cikti-%d0%b5%d0%b2%d1%80%d0%be-ve-sterlin-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T23:52:16","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T23:52:16","slug":"fedin-sikilasma-beklentileri-dolari-desteklerken-dolar-endeksi-100un-uzerine-cikti-%d0%b5%d0%b2%d1%80%d0%be-ve-sterlin-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fedin-sikilasma-beklentileri-dolari-desteklerken-dolar-endeksi-100un-uzerine-cikti-%d0%b5%d0%b2%d1%80%d0%be-ve-sterlin-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentileri dolar\u0131 desteklerken Dolar Endeksi 100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; \u0435\u0432\u0440\u043e ve sterlin geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Dolar\u0131 Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) 100,00 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine ve son iki ay\u0131n yeni zirvelerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Hareketi, Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiler desteklerken, ABD-\u0130ran-H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fma piyasada s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ilgi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. 23 Eyl\u00fcl \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc oda\u011fa; \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global \u0130malat ve Hizmet PMI\u2019lar\u0131, haftal\u0131k MBA Mortgage Ba\u015fvurular\u0131, EIA ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131 raporu ve Fed\u2019den Barr\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 yerle\u015firken, ABD tahvil getirileri e\u011fri boyunca kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti.<\/p>\n

Euro\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f derinle\u015fti; EUR\/USD, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 fla\u015f S&P Global PMI\u2019lar\u0131 ile ECB\u2019den Vujcic ve Lane\u2019in konu\u015fmalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 1,1430 civar\u0131nda yeni \u00e7ok haftal\u0131k dipleri test etti. Sterlin 1,3320 seviyelerine, yani temmuz sonu d\u00fczeylerine gerilerken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k da ayn\u0131 PMI setini bekliyor. USD\/JPY \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de y\u00fckselerek 157,00\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global PMI\u2019lar\u0131 24 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. AUD\/USD ise 0,7100 alt\u0131na sarkarak \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn\u00fcn en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar\u0131 da s\u0131rada. Emtialarda, vadeli \u00f6n ay WTI, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fine dair beklentilerle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90,00 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inerek \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine geriledi. Alt\u0131n ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi ancak ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

ABD Dolar\u0131, Avrupa Maj\u00f6rleri ve Yen \u00dczerine \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bask\u0131n seyrinin s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; zira ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 100,00 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine yerle\u015fiyor. Bu ralli; %2,5\u2019lik diren\u00e7li ABD GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve %4,2\u2019lik istikrarl\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc makro temellerle destekleniyor ve Fed politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u015fahin beklentileri canl\u0131 tutuyor. Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamak i\u00e7in DXY \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 veya USD a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 uzun pozisyonlu stratejiler kurgulamay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1430\u2019a do\u011fru zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3320 civar\u0131nda temmuz sonu diplerine \u00e7ekilmesiyle, Avrupa maj\u00f6rlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Euro\u2019da kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,1350 civar\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131, Euro B\u00f6lgesi genelinde beklentiden zay\u0131f gelebilecek fla\u015f PMI\u2019lara kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flar. Sterlin taraf\u0131nda ise, Fed ile \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n derinle\u015fmesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli bear put spread stratejileri \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a etkili g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY\u2019nin 157,00 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalarken ani Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla knock-out al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, BoJ\u2019un h\u0131zl\u0131 hareketleri belirli bir noktaya kadar tolere edebildi\u011fini; ancak 160,00 civar\u0131nda volatilitenin keskinle\u015fmesi nedeniyle bariyerli\/korumal\u0131 yap\u0131lar\u0131n kritik hale geldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu t\u00fcr s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 risk profilleriyle USD\/JPY\u2019de uzun pozisyonda kalmak, getiri fark\u0131ndan yararlan\u0131rken y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 kuyruk riskini \u00fcstlenmemeyi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n

Enerji ve Alt\u0131nda T\u00fcrev F\u0131rsatlar\u0131<\/h3>\n

Enerji taraf\u0131nda, \u00f6n ay WTI ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90,00 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesi, \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u00e7abilecek bir anla\u015fma umutlar\u0131n\u0131n arz endi\u015felerini azaltmas\u0131yla birlikte, belirgin bir rejim de\u011fi\u015fimine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendden yararlanmak i\u00e7in WTI \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almay\u0131 veya bear call spread kurmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 2 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde s\u00fcrpriz bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret eden son veriler de, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini destekliyor.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.400 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda tutunuyor olsa da, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k tahvil getirileri kombinasyonu bir konsolidasyon evresine i\u015faret ediyor. Metalin y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana kaydetti\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 sindirdi\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde prim toplamak amac\u0131yla iron condor veya bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) opsiyon stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, Fed faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde yatay seyre meyilli oldu\u011fundan, prim satmaya dayal\u0131 stratejiler mevcut ko\u015fullarda daha cazip hale geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dolar f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131 geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc: DXY 100\u2019\u00fc a\u015farak iki ay\u0131n zirvesinde. Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi euro\/sterlini bast\u0131r\u0131yor, yen zay\u0131f. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz umudu WTI\u2019\u0131 90 alt\u0131na iterken, alt\u0131n 4.400 alt\u0131nda yatay. Dolar long, EUR\/GBP put, WTI put.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68709","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t