{"id":68706,"date":"2026-09-22T22:51:34","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T22:51:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/hurmuz-bogazinin-yeniden-acilacagi-umudu-dolari-desteklerken-sterlin-geriledi-fed-faiz-artisi-bahisleri-ve-ingilterenin-borclanmasi-baski-yaratti\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T22:51:34","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T22:51:34","slug":"hurmuz-bogazinin-yeniden-acilacagi-umudu-dolari-desteklerken-sterlin-geriledi-fed-faiz-artisi-bahisleri-ve-ingilterenin-borclanmasi-baski-yaratti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/hurmuz-bogazinin-yeniden-acilacagi-umudu-dolari-desteklerken-sterlin-geriledi-fed-faiz-artisi-bahisleri-ve-ingilterenin-borclanmasi-baski-yaratti\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Yeniden A\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 Umudu Dolar\u0131 Desteklerken Sterlin Geriledi; Fed Faiz Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Bahisleri ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin Bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 Bask\u0131 Yaratt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sterlin, Tahran\u2019\u0131n Washington\u2019un \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131 ve askeri operasyonlar\u0131 durdurmas\u0131 halinde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yedi g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yeniden a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildiren haberlerin ard\u0131ndan sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,17 de\u011fer kaybetti. GBP\/USD, 1,3387 seviyesini test ettikten sonra 1,3343\u2019te i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, ABD Dolar Endeksi y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlayan piyasalar\u0131n etkisiyle %0,27 y\u00fckselerek 100,69\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve iki ay\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n seyretti. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri de daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret etti; ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi\u2019nin d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 16,75 binden 20 bine y\u00fckselirken, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019la bir anla\u015fman\u0131n Kas\u0131m\u2019daki ABD ara se\u00e7imlerinin ard\u0131ndan gelebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\u0130ngiltere\u2019de ise A\u011fustos ay\u0131 Kamu Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc Net Bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 15,7 milyar sterlin beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 18,26 milyar sterline y\u00fckselerek, mali y\u0131l\u0131n ilk be\u015f ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 77,3 milyar sterline ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu rakam B\u00fct\u00e7e Sorumlulu\u011fu Ofisi (OBR) projeksiyonunun 8,1 milyar sterlin \u00fczerinde. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) hamlesine ili\u015fkin faiz beklentisi %65 seviyesinde olup, paritenin 1,3300 \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Teknik olarak GBP\/USD 1,3324\u2019te, 1,3481\u2019deki SMA k\u00fcmelenmesinin alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; diren\u00e7 1,3335, 1,3449, 1,3504 ve 1,3713 seviyelerinde izlenirken, RSI (14) g\u00f6stergesinin 31 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131na yak\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Emtia ve D\u00f6viz Piyasalar\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131mlar<\/h3>\n

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki durum geli\u015ftik\u00e7e, ham petrol ve d\u00f6viz paritelerindeki opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlememiz gerekiyor. K\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si her g\u00fcn bu bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7ti\u011fi i\u00e7in, bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik somut ad\u0131mlar\u0131n k\u00fcresel enerji maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi ve ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenli liman talebini zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 muhtemel. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, resmi bir diplomatik k\u0131r\u0131lma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi halinde Greenback \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ya da risk duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek varl\u0131klarda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n

Grafiklerde GBP\/USD g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f momentumu sergiliyor; ancak 31 civar\u0131nda seyreden G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI), paritenin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmekte oldu\u011funa dair uyar\u0131 veriyor. Bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, 1,3335\u2019teki yak\u0131n diren\u00e7 seviyesi \u00e7evresinde limit emirler veya s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli GBP al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge etmek, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n ani bir teknik tepki rallisini tetiklemesi halinde sert bir d\u00fczeltme s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n

Makroekonomik S\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcler ve Volatilite Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00f6viz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde ana belirleyici, Fed ile \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 olmaya devam edecek. ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00f6stergeleri y\u00fckselirken \u0130ngiltere\u2019de kamu bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 18,26 milyar sterline ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu ekonomik bask\u0131 ABD tahvil getirileri lehine bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yarat\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n BoE faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, bu a\u00e7\u0131lan farktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in getiri spread\u2019leri veya swap t\u00fcrevleri \u00fczerinden i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki ABD ara se\u00e7imlerine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, siyasi belirsizli\u011fin opsiyon piyasas\u0131na ek volatilite enjekte etmesi beklenir. Tarihsel veriler, b\u00fcy\u00fck ABD se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesindeki haftalarda maj\u00f6r d\u00f6viz paritelerinde z\u0131mni volatilitenin genellikle %10 ila %15 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, piyasan\u0131n nihai y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak beklenen sert hareketlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle veya strangle gibi volatilite stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131 uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz haberleri ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen Dolar, sterlini bask\u0131lad\u0131: GBP\/USD 1,3343\u2019e indi. ABD faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. \u0130ngiltere bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 artt\u0131; BoE art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %65. RSI 31 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131ma yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49995,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68706","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t