Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi (DJIA), New York a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 14 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine dokunduktan sonra geriledi ve Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131na k\u0131yasla 51.800 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. S&P 500 yatay seyrederken, NASDAQ Bile\u015fik Endeksi rekor seviyeleri test etti. Hareket, yapay zek\u00e2 ajanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ilgiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak finans hisselerinden teknoloji hisselerine do\u011fru bir rotasyonu izledi; JPMorgan analistlerinin Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda not art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Meta Platforms da bu hareketten faydalananlar aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131. DJIA fiyat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, 30 bile\u015feninden herhangi birinde 1 dolarl\u0131k hareket endeksi yakla\u015f\u0131k 6 puan oynat\u0131yor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla hisse 1.000 dolar da olsa 100 dolar da olsa 10 dolarl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 puan g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k S&P 500 ve NASDAQ piyasa de\u011feri a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131d\u0131r. 900 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki fiyat\u0131yla Goldman Sachs, 400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki JPMorgan\u2019dan endeks i\u00e7inde daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011fa sahip; JPMorgan\u2019\u0131n piyasa de\u011feri ise \u00fc\u00e7 kattan fazla b\u00fcy\u00fck olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen. Meta ise Dow\u2019da yer alm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol be\u015finci ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k seansta da geriledi; Brent, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131 \u015fart\u0131yla H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yedi g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yeniden a\u00e7may\u0131 teklif etti\u011fine dair haberler \u00fczerine 8 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. S\u00f6z konusu haber ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z kaynaklarca do\u011frulanmad\u0131. Fed, 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ana politika faizini 0,25 puan art\u0131rarak %3,75-%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltti; bu, Temmuz 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk art\u0131\u015f oldu. JPMorgan da bir g\u00fcn sonra baz faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 (prime rate) %7,00\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Bir sonraki Fed karar\u0131, 3 Kas\u0131m ara se\u00e7imlerinden alt\u0131 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce, 28 Ekim\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Teknik olarak diren\u00e7 52.100\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerinde ve ard\u0131ndan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen 52.400\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerindeki zirvede bulunuyor. Destek 51.800\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 51.500\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda ve 51.200 civar\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor. Stoch RSI 22 civar\u0131nda; 52.100 alt\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn 52.200 \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015fla ge\u00e7ersiz olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasada net bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: Para geleneksel finans kurumlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde teknoloji hisselerine y\u00f6neliyor. Fiyat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi, Goldman Sachs gibi pahal\u0131 banka hisselerinin etkisine daha a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek Nasdaq\u2019\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde gerisinde kal\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan, Dow\u2019da k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131p teknoloji odakl\u0131 endekslerde uzun (long) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 koruyarak yararlanabilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, Dow 52.100 ana diren\u00e7 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimin korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI momentum g\u00f6stergesi iki haftad\u0131r geriliyor ve 22 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor; bu da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma i\u015faret ediyor. Bu put pozisyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hedeflerimiz, 18 Eyl\u00fcl dip seviyesi olan 51.500 civar\u0131 ile 16 Eyl\u00fcl dip seviyesi olan 51.200 civar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
28 Ekim\u2019deki Fed faiz karar\u0131 ve 3 Kas\u0131m ara se\u00e7imlerine yakla\u015f\u0131rken volatilitenin artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Tarihsel olarak CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX), siyasi belirsizlik nedeniyle ara se\u00e7imlere giden iki ayda ortalama %10-%15 y\u00fckseliyor. Bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, Dow \u00fczerinde para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) straddle stratejilerinin al\u0131nmas\u0131, sert ve beklenmedik fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan k\u00e2r elde etmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015fen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019la olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya ili\u015fkin haberlerle birlikte, Dow\u2019un tek enerji hissesi olan Chevron \u00fczerinde de bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Brent petrol yak\u0131n zamanda 8 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine inerken, bu durum enerji ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Enerji taraf\u0131ndaki bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131yla hedge edilebilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, ara se\u00e7im y\u0131llar\u0131nda hisse piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman Ekim ay\u0131nda dip yapt\u0131ktan sonra y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmamak gerekir. 1950\u2019den bu yana, borsalar her ara se\u00e7imin ard\u0131ndan gelen 12 ay\u0131n tamam\u0131nda y\u00fckselmi\u015f ve ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 getiri sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu tarihsel e\u011filim, Ekim ay\u0131 sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131rken k\u0131sa vadeli put stratejilerinden uzun vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131na kademeli ge\u00e7i\u015fe haz\u0131rlan\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Wall Street\u2019te yapay zek\u00e2 r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131: DJIA 51.800\u2019e \u00e7ekilirken Nasdaq rekor test ediyor. Finansdan teknolojiye rotasyon h\u0131zland\u0131. Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir; 52.100 diren\u00e7, 51.500-51.200 destek. Orta vadede se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 ralli beklentisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50024,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68705","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t