{"id":68703,"date":"2026-09-22T20:52:29","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T20:52:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-guclu-yen-ve-fed-faiz-artisi-bahisleriyle-pariteyi-bant-icinde-tutarken-15750-yakininda-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T20:52:29","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T20:52:29","slug":"usd-jpy-guclu-yen-ve-fed-faiz-artisi-bahisleriyle-pariteyi-bant-icinde-tutarken-15750-yakininda-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-guclu-yen-ve-fed-faiz-artisi-bahisleriyle-pariteyi-bant-icinde-tutarken-15750-yakininda-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Yen ve Fed Faiz Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Bahisleriyle Pariteyi Bant \u0130\u00e7inde Tutarken 157,50 Yak\u0131n\u0131nda Seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hacimli Silver Week i\u015flemlerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6sterdi; yen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken, genel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Parite 157,46 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 100,60 yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve ek Federal Rezerv faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerinin deste\u011fiyle temmuz sonundan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere yak\u0131n kald\u0131. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n BM\u2019deki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine dair s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 i\u015faret vermesi sonras\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeleri izledi.<\/p>\n

Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc politika g\u00fcncellemesinin ard\u0131ndan USD\/JPY 158,05\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; ancak New York seans\u0131nda BoJ\u2019un kur kontrol\u00fc (rate check) yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan yeniden 157,00\u2019ye do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi. \u00d6nceki ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte parite 160\u2019a yak\u0131n seviyelerden 153\u2019e gerilemi\u015fti; toparlanma ise G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 52 civar\u0131nda ve MACD pozitife d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f olsa da, kilit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda t\u0131kand\u0131. Diren\u00e7ler 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 158,44\u2019te, ard\u0131ndan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 158,86 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 159,53\u2019te izleniyor; bir sonraki bariyer 160, bunun \u00fczerinde ise temmuz sonundaki 40 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 164 seviyesi bulunuyor. Destekler 155,50 civar\u0131nda ve ard\u0131ndan 153\u2019te.<\/p>\n

Yatay Seyir \u0130\u00e7in \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

USD\/JPY\u2019nin 157,46 civar\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda paritede dar bantta\/yatay seyirli i\u015flemlere haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD Dolar Endeksi 100,60 \u00e7evresinde diren\u00e7li kalmaya devam ettik\u00e7e yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 s\u00fcrse de, hemen \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc teknik diren\u00e7ler bulunuyor. Bu konsolidasyondan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan k\u0131sa vadeli iron condor stratejileri veya bant i\u00e7i opsiyon spread\u2019lerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

Risk Y\u00f6netimi ve Teknik Seviyeler<\/h3>\n

BoJ\u2019un son d\u00f6nemdeki kur kontrol ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 dikkate almak gerekiyor; bu ad\u0131mlar tarihsel olarak do\u011frudan piyasa m\u00fcdahalesi \u00f6ncesindeki son uyar\u0131 niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki kur savunmalar\u0131nda Japonya, 2024 ilkbahar sonlar\u0131nda yeni \u00e7oklu y\u0131l diplerinden yeni geri \u00e7ekmek amac\u0131yla rekor 9,8 trilyon yen (yakla\u015f\u0131k 62 milyar dolar) harcam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle, paritenin kritik 160,00 e\u015fi\u011fine yakla\u015fmas\u0131 halinde ani ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Teknik analizimiz, RSI\u2019\u0131n 52 seviyesinde hafif pozitif tarafa d\u00f6nmesine ra\u011fmen 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 158,44\u2019\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bariyer olmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 159,53 \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine kadar uzun y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u201cbreakout\u201d stratejilerinden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bunun yerine, m\u00fcdahale endi\u015feleri nedeniyle \u015fu anda yen-al\u0131m (yen-call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility) e\u011frisi\/\u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (skew) \u00fczerinden i\u015flem yapmak, \u00e7ok daha iyi bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY Silver Week\u2019te 157,46 civar\u0131nda yatay: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yen ve diren\u00e7li DXY y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. BoJ \u201crate check\u201d m\u00fcdahale riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor; 158,44\/160 diren\u00e7. Strateji: iron condor, bant spread; korunma: OTM put.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50041,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t