Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.291 dolarl\u0131k dip seviyeden toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 4.328 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; piyasalar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan gelen yeni man\u015fetleri sindirdi. \u0130ran, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131 ve asker\u00ee bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 halinde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yedi g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yeniden a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; mesaj arabulucular \u00fczerinden iletildi. ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00f6nceki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verirken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 100,67 zirvesinden (30 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek) yakla\u015f\u0131k 100,50\u2019ye geriledi. Petrol, hafta sonu ABD-\u0130ran tehditlerinin gerilimi y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131na ve oda\u011f\u0131n BM Genel Kurulu\u2019na kaymas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, be\u015finci ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; WTI 90 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken bu hafta %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde geriledi.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131ndaki toparlanma, \u015fahin bir Fed g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Fed ge\u00e7en hafta federal fonlama faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %3,75\u2013%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltti ve 18 yetkiliden 16\u2019s\u0131 bu y\u0131l en az bir art\u0131\u015f daha bekliyor. Grafiklerde XAU\/USD, 4.301 ve 4.316 dolardaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerinde, ancak 4.541 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda; RSI 47 ve MACD negatif. Destek 4.316 ve 4.301 dolarda, ard\u0131ndan 4.150 ve 4.000 dolar seviyelerinde bulunurken; diren\u00e7 4.541 ve 4.700 dolar seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131nda yatay bant stratejilerini benimsemelerini; 4.301 dolardaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama ile 4.316 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama aras\u0131ndaki dar koridora odaklanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n\u0131n, Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde reel faiz beklentileriyle tarihsel olarak %70 korelasyon g\u00f6stermesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, federal fonlama faizinin %4,25\u2019e do\u011fru ilerleme patikas\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, piyasan\u0131n jeopolitik ve makroekonomik sinyaller aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eki\u015fmeyi sindirdi\u011fi bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te prim geliri elde etmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa strangle veya iron condor opsiyon stratejilerinden yararlanabilir.<\/p>\n
4.300 dolar destek seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; zira bu seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 4.150 dolar band\u0131na kadar otomatik sat\u0131\u015f emirlerini h\u0131zla tetikleyebilir. Bu olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n, tarihsel olarak y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemlerle uyumludur; 2022 sonlar\u0131nda WTI petrol\u00fc benzer y\u00fcksek seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken alt\u0131n, dengelenmeden \u00f6nce ge\u00e7ici likidite \u00e7ekilmeleri ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Destek korunursa, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131yla yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015felerini azaltmas\u0131 halinde ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131 veya bear put spread kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde ise, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc merkez bankas\u0131 talebinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu belirgin bir taban g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son y\u0131llarda y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.000 metrik tonun \u00fczerinde rekor al\u0131mlara ula\u015fan bu talep, ETF varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 da alt\u0131 ay\u0131n zirvelerinde desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. BM Genel Kurulu toplant\u0131lar\u0131ndan gelebilecek pozitif geli\u015fmeler, 4.541 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru sert bir short kapama rallisini tetikleyebilir. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak isteyenler i\u00e7in, mutlak riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma momentumu \u00fczerinden kald\u0131ra\u00e7 sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla Ekim vadeli uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu man\u015fetleriyle 4.328 dolarda tutunurken Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi y\u00fckseli\u015fi frenliyor. 4.301\u20134.316 band\u0131 kritik; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 4.150 riski. Diren\u00e7 4.541. Opsiyonda strangle\/condor \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68696","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t