Yen, Avrupa saatlerinde ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti; USD\/JPY %0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 157,00 civar\u0131na indi. Hareket, ABD\u2013\u0130ran diplomasisine y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin yeniden canlanmas\u0131yla petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert d\u00fczeltmenin ard\u0131ndan geldi: \u0130ranl\u0131 bir yetkili, 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de arabulucular \u00fczerinden ABD\u2019ye bir \u00f6neri iletildi\u011fini ve ABD\u2019nin askeri bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik ilk ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atmas\u0131 halinde, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yedi g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Yanbu\u2019dan ham petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 en erken Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden ba\u015flatma ve Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 petrol boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 devreye alma planlar\u0131 arz umutlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; bu t\u00fcr bir zemin, yen gibi petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 para birimlerini destekleme e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131 oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korurken, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) 2026\u2019da halihaz\u0131rda iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na gitmesi bekleniyor. ABD taraf\u0131nda ise daha yumu\u015fak petrol fiyatlar\u0131, dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebini zay\u0131flatt\u0131 ve Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 52 g\u00fcn\u00fcn zirvesi 100,67 seviyesinden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Grafiklerde USD\/JPY 156,96 seviyesindeydi; 20 periyotluk EMA olan 156,63\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde tutunurken, RSI\u2019\u0131n 49,57\u2019de bulunmas\u0131 160,00 b\u00f6lgesinden geri \u00e7ekilme sonras\u0131 n\u00f6tr momentuma i\u015faret etti. Destek 156,63\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, 156,96 g\u00fcn i\u00e7i pivot olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY paritesinde 156,63 destek seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Fiyat bu 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na belirgin \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa, 150,00 seviyesine do\u011fru daha derin bir geri \u00e7ekilmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in at-the-money\u2019a yak\u0131n put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken, k\u00fcresel petrol bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hafiflemesiyle tetiklenebilecek olas\u0131 bir Yen rallisine pozisyon almam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, ekonomistlerin politika faizinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6ng\u00fclerde %1,0\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc BoJ\u2019un de\u011fi\u015fen para politikas\u0131na da bakmak gerekiyor. Tarihsel olarak, BoJ\u2019un Temmuz 2024\u2019te faizi %0,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi gibi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck politika de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri bile b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 short kapama hareketlerini tetiklemi\u015f ve Yen\u2019i birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %10\u2019dan fazla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015fti. Her \u00fc\u00e7 ayda bir d\u00fczenli faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesiyle, uzun Yen vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a uygulanabilir bir strateji olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015fen enerji maliyetleri, Japon para birimine y\u00f6nelik olumlu (bullish) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc desteklemeye devam ediyor. Japonya enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %90\u2019\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011fi i\u00e7in, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 70 dolara do\u011fru son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde azalt\u0131yor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fen ithalat dinamiklerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in enerji ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 FX t\u00fcrevlerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) olduk\u00e7a n\u00f6tr bir seviyede olan 49,57\u2019de bulunuyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n \u015fu anda net bir k\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015flem stratejisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in, volatilitede ani bir geni\u015flemeden k\u00e2r elde etmeye y\u00f6nelik opsiyon straddle stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu kurgu, USD\/JPY\u2019nin yeniden 160,00\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckselmesi ya da 155,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n her ikisine kar\u015f\u0131 da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yen, \u0130ran diplomasisiyle petrol\u00fcn sert d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve Suudi arz umutlar\u0131yla USD\/JPY\u2019yi 157\u2019ye \u00e7ekerek toparland\u0131. BoJ\u2019dan yeni faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi s\u00fcrerken, 156,63 destek; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa put, belirsizlikte straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50035,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t