Polonya\u2019n\u0131n a\u011fustos ay\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri, istihdam\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %0,8 geriledi\u011fini, \u00fccretlerin ise %5,6 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8 y\u00fckseldi ve para arz\u0131 verilerinin bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 CET 14.00\u2019te a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Moody\u2019s\u2019in Polonya not indirimini takiben, politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi olmayan bir senaryo alt\u0131nda Avrupa Komisyonu Bor\u00e7 S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi \u0130zleme Raporu projeksiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131larak 2024 ve 2025 edisyonlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda 2035 bor\u00e7 patikalar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Romanya\u2019n\u0131n 2035 bor\u00e7 projeksiyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k 15 puan iyile\u015fti; bunun nedeni, man\u015fet b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 2024\u2019te GSYH\u2019nin %9,3\u2019\u00fcnden 2025\u2019te %7,9\u2019a gerilemesi ve bor\u00e7 k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fckselse bile ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn beklenmesi oldu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Macaristan, Polonya ve Slovenya\u2019da projekte bor\u00e7 artarken; H\u0131rvatistan, \u00c7ekya ve Slovakya\u2019da daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ayn\u0131 senaryoda, Macaristan, Polonya ve Slovakya\u2019da borcun 10 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde %100\u2019\u00fc a\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Piyasalarda Macaristan\u2019\u0131n faizi %5,50\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, EURHUF 361\u2019e do\u011fru hareket etti; EURCZK ve EURPLN ise hafif geriledi. Slovak ajans\u0131 ARDAL, 2028\/2029\/2033\/2043 vadelerinde toplam 603 milyon avroluk ihale ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi; ortalama getiriler s\u0131ras\u0131yla %3,34, %3,56, %3,90 ve %4,54 oldu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, \u00f6zellikle iki ila be\u015f y\u0131l vadelerde Polonya Faiz Swap\u2019lar\u0131nda (IRS) \u201cpay\u201d taraf\u0131nda pozisyon almak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Polonya\u2019da istihdam\u0131n %0,8 d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve Moody\u2019s\u2019in yak\u0131n tarihli A3 not indirimiyle birlikte mali riskler art\u0131yor. Polonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri son d\u00f6nemde %5,4 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve uzun vadeli bor\u00e7 projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n GSYH\u2019nin %100\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fma tehdidi nedeniyle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bug\u00fcn gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne %5,50\u2019de ara verme karar\u0131, b\u00f6lgede enflasyon risklerinin halen olduk\u00e7a \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Macar forintindeki zay\u0131flamaya kar\u015f\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 400 seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareket hedefiyle EUR\/HUF call opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak hedge edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Macaristan ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, forintte sert sat\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Romanya\u2019n\u0131n agresif mali konsolidasyonu uzun vadeli bor\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde 15 puanl\u0131k bir iyile\u015fme sa\u011flad\u0131. Man\u015fet a\u00e7\u0131k GSYH\u2019nin %7,9\u2019una gerilerken, k\u0131sa vadeli \u201creceiver\u201d swaplar ve uzun vadeli \u201cpayer\u201d swaplar kullanarak Romanya getiri e\u011frisinde dikle\u015fme (steepening) i\u015flemi yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu strateji, k\u0131sa vadeli mali iyimserli\u011fi fiyatlarken uzun vadeli yap\u0131sal harcama sorunlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Polonya ve Macaristan borcunda be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k Kredi Temerr\u00fct Takas\u0131 (CDS) \u00fczerinden koruma al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son piyasa verileri, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu y\u00fckselen bor\u00e7 oranlar\u0131n\u0131 sindirirken MDA kredi spreadlerinin Alman Bund\u2019lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 geni\u015flemeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu geni\u015flemeye \u015fimdiden pozisyon almak, y\u0131l sonuna kadar beklenen ilave not bask\u0131lar\u0131ndan faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dikkat: Orta Avrupa\u2019da bor\u00e7 ve enflasyon riski fiyatlamas\u0131 h\u0131zlan\u0131yor. Polonya\u2019da istihdam d\u00fc\u015ferken \u00fccretler art\u0131yor; Macaristan %5,50\u2019de. Romanya bor\u00e7 patikas\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftiriyor; IRS payer, EURHUF call ve CDS \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t