BNY Markets, ABD\u2019de enflasyonun \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin faize duyars\u0131z bile\u015fenleri taraf\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 itildi\u011fini ve bunun Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fini belirtiyor. Kurum, Fed\u2019in Aral\u0131k 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bir ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha beklerken, \u015fokun arz kaynakl\u0131 niteli\u011fi ve talep tahribat\u0131 riski nedeniyle, piyasalar\u0131n 2027 i\u00e7in fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fip ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyece\u011fine \u015f\u00fcpheyle yakla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Notta, daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikan\u0131n talebi bask\u0131lay\u0131p hizmet enflasyonunu yukar\u0131 \u00e7eken fiyatlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde dokunulmaz b\u0131rakmas\u0131 halinde, Fed\u2019in gelecek y\u0131l duru\u015funu gev\u015fetmek zorunda kalabilece\u011fi savunuluyor. Ayr\u0131ca mevcut politika rejiminin, talep belirgin bi\u00e7imde yava\u015flamad\u0131k\u00e7a enflasyonu sadece faiz hamleleriyle s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya bel ba\u011flamaktan ziyade, enflasyon kontrol\u00fcne ili\u015fkin kredibiliteyi korumaya da k\u0131smen odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 gerilese ve olumlu bir arz \u015foku yaratsa bile, BNY\u2019ye g\u00f6re talep kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 yeniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n, 2027\u2019de Fed\u2019in ka\u00e7 kez faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 oldu\u011fundan fazla fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019da son bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131 olsa da, mevcut piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyonu \u00e7\u00f6zemeyece\u011fini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde ani bir de\u011fi\u015fime pozisyon almak i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar\u0131 kullanmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcncel veriler, \u00e7ekirdek hizmet enflasyonunun %3,5 seviyesinde yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn temelinde, y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131na duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan sa\u011fl\u0131k ve ula\u015f\u0131m gibi sekt\u00f6rler yer al\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, arz kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonu agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla \u201ctedavi etme\u201d \u00e7abas\u0131, yaln\u0131zca sert bir talep tahribat\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine zorlad\u0131. Bu dinami\u011fin, Fed\u2019i piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011finden \u00e7ok daha erken s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ara vermeye itece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu olas\u0131 aradan faydalanmak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na Haziran 2027 vadeli Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 durdurursa, k\u0131sa vadeli getiriler h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fer; bu da tarihsel olarak s\u00f6z konusu opsiyonlar\u0131n de\u011ferinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 tetikler. Bu strateji, piyasan\u0131n gereksiz 2027 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131karmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131yla kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, getiri e\u011frisi dikle\u015ftirici i\u015flemlerin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; \u00f6zellikle iki y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine (Treasury) vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131n\u0131p, on y\u0131ll\u0131k kontratlar\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131 \u015feklinde. Hazine getiri e\u011frisi h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin bi\u00e7imde ters, ancak Fed\u2019in ara vermesi iki y\u0131ll\u0131k getirileri h\u0131zla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekecektir. Bu i\u015flem, s\u00f6z konusu arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n muhtemelen yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 ekonomik yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir koruma (hedge) sunar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019de \u015fahin fiyatlama \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclebilir: BNY\u2019ye g\u00f6re arz kaynakl\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek PCE, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n etkisini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019da son art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131, 2027 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 abart\u0131l\u0131. SOFR call ve e\u011fri dikle\u015fmesi \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49987,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t