Sterlin, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ngiltere verilerinin kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131n a\u011fustosta beklentilerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesiyle, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda erken saatlerdeki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi ve mali pozisyona y\u00f6nelik incelemeleri yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. GBP\/USD paritesi 1,3390 civar\u0131ndan 1,3370 seviyesinin alt\u0131na gerilerken, son g\u00fcnlerdeki \u00e7ok g\u00fcnl\u00fck bant i\u00e7inde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130ngiltere Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi (ONS), a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda net bor\u00e7lanman\u0131n 18,26 milyar sterlin oldu\u011funu; temmuzda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilen 2,04 milyar sterlinden y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve 15,70 milyar sterlinlik piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
ONS, bor\u00e7lanman\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n a\u011fustos ay\u0131na g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte bir oran\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ve vergi ile di\u011fer gelirlerden elde edilen kamu gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bunun k\u0131smen Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon etkilerini yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Kamu borcu 3 trilyon sterlinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, ekonomiye oran olarak bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti. Veriler ayr\u0131ca, mali y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bug\u00fcne bor\u00e7lanman\u0131n B\u00fct\u00e7e Sorumlulu\u011fu Ofisi (OBR) tahmininin 8,1 milyar sterlin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Piyasalar, ge\u00e7en haftaki toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentilerini; Fed\u2019in \u015fahin y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi sonras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131yla birlikte de\u011ferlendirirken, oda\u011f\u0131n hafta ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri (PMI) verilerine kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn \u0130ngiltere kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131n 18,26 milyar sterline s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3370\u2019in alt\u0131na gerilemesiyle, \u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nin ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda son kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 15,70 milyar sterlinlik beklentinin \u00fczerindeki bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, kritik bir mali d\u00f6neme girilirken Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k kamu maliyesinin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sterlin \u00e7aprazlar\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Gelecek ay a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 beklenen y\u00fcksek \u00f6nem d\u00fczeyine sahip \u0130ngiltere b\u00fct\u00e7esi \u00f6ncesinde, sterlindeki ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak maliye politikas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 \u015foklar para birimine ciddi zarar verebiliyor; Eyl\u00fcl 2022\u2019deki b\u00fct\u00e7e krizi, GBP\/USD\u2019de ima edilen volatilitenin %20\u2019nin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na ve paritenin 1,0350 ile t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilemesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. K\u0131sa vadeli GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, benzer bir mali hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri koruyabilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz opsiyonlar\u0131 piyasas\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin beklentilerin h\u00e2l\u00e2 olduk\u00e7a agresif fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate almal\u0131y\u0131z. Merkez bankas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi \u015fahin patikay\u0131 teslim edemezse, sterlini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekecek sert bir g\u00fcvercin yeniden fiyatlama g\u00f6rmemiz olas\u0131. Getiri farklar\u0131 kayarken bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc fiyatlamak i\u00e7in EUR\/GBP al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla pozisyon almak, y\u00fcksek getirili bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan ABD dolar\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik ivme ve Federal Rezerv\u2019den gelen \u015fahin tonla desteklenmeye devam ediyor. Yakla\u015fan ABD verilerinin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 halinde olu\u015facak dolar al\u0131mlar\u0131, GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde daha fazla bask\u0131 yaratacakt\u0131r. Bu trendden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, sterlinde maliyet etkin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunma sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla risk reversal stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin, a\u011fustosta kamu bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131n 18,26 milyar \u00a3 ile beklentiyi a\u015fmas\u0131yla kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 sildi; GBP\/USD 1,3370 alt\u0131na indi. B\u00fct\u00e7e \u00f6ncesi volatilite, BoE riski ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar bask\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49989,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68687","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t