{"id":68672,"date":"2026-09-22T05:51:22","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T05:51:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-boj-yonlendirmesinin-hayal-kirikligi-yaratmasiyla-158e-dogru-yukseliyor-160-yakininda-mudahale-riskleri-artiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T05:51:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T05:51:22","slug":"usd-jpy-boj-yonlendirmesinin-hayal-kirikligi-yaratmasiyla-158e-dogru-yukseliyor-160-yakininda-mudahale-riskleri-artiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-boj-yonlendirmesinin-hayal-kirikligi-yaratmasiyla-158e-dogru-yukseliyor-160-yakininda-mudahale-riskleri-artiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, BoJ y\u00f6nlendirmesinin hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla 158\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseliyor; 160 yak\u0131n\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale riskleri art\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 157,55 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. Yen, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) ge\u00e7en haftaki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde \u015fahin bir y\u00f6nlendirme vermemesiyle zay\u0131flad\u0131. BoJ, 7\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 2 oyla faizi 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %1,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; bu seviye son 31 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fckse\u011fi. Swap piyasalar\u0131, ekim sonu toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yeni bir ad\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda fiyatlarken, aral\u0131kta art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %90 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, yetkililerin \u201ckur kontrol\u00fc\u201d (rate checks) yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi; piyasalar bunu \u00e7o\u011fu zaman kur m\u00fcdahalesinin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor. Parite 160,00\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken m\u00fcdahale endi\u015feleri art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca Fed s\u00f6ylemine \u00e7evriliyor; John Williams, Philip Jefferson ve Thomas Barkin\u2019in konu\u015fmalar\u0131 izlenecek. St. Louis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Alberto Musalem, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep ve petrol d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki emtia fiyat \u015fokunun besledi\u011fi enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n gerekebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Piyasalar, ekimde en az 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %56,5 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce %43,5\u2019ti. Teknik seviyelerde diren\u00e7 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 159,55\u2019te ve 161,10 civar\u0131nda; destek 156,65 ve 152,18 \u00e7evresinde. RSI (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 52 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Pozisyonlanmas\u0131 ve M\u00fcdahale Riskleri<\/h3>\n

USD\/JPY paritesinin, BoJ\u2019un %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltti\u011fi faiz sonras\u0131 net bir \u015fahin y\u00f6nlendirme vermemesiyle 157,55 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, k\u0131sa vadede 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama olan 159,55\u2019e do\u011fru yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir harekete haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekir. Bununla birlikte, 160,00 seviyesi yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; resmi m\u00fcdahale riskleri bu e\u015fik yak\u0131n\u0131nda belirgin \u015fekilde art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Tarihsel veriler, Japon otoritelerin bu seviyelere son derece duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; 2024 bahar\u0131nda para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in rekor 9,8 trilyon yen harcam\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u201ckur kontrol\u00fc\u201d yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair son haberler, yeniden devreye girmeye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik net bir uyar\u0131 niteli\u011finde. Paritede devlet kaynakl\u0131 ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Fed G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

\u00d6te yandan ABD dolar\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ekimde Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %56,5\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesiyle (ge\u00e7en hafta %43,5) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek buluyor. Fed yetkililerinden gelen \u015fahin yorumlar, enflasyon risklerinin y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek ABD tahvil getirilerini yukar\u0131da tutuyor. Bu faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta USD\/JPY \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan parite, 156,65 seviyesindeki orta Bollinger band\u0131 deste\u011finin \u00fczerinde tutunuyor. Yukar\u0131 potansiyeli 159,50\u2019ye do\u011fru de\u011ferlendirmek ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutmak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa call spread stratejisinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Olas\u0131 bir m\u00fcdahalenin pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itmesi halinde ise, 152,18\u2019deki ana destek band\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n kademeli art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY 157,55\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131: BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u015fahin de\u011fil, yen zay\u0131f. 160,00\u2019da m\u00fcdahale alarm\u0131. Fed\u2019den \u015fahin sinyal art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; diren\u00e7 159,55-161,10, destek 156,65-152,18.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50020,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t