ABD hisseleri, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc zay\u0131f seans\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 gelen bir toparlanma yakalad\u0131. Fiyat hareketi, kat\u0131l\u0131m (piyasa geneli yay\u0131l\u0131m) h\u00e2l\u00e2 odakta kalsa da, son d\u00f6nemdeki seviyelerin bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde savunuldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvil getirisi, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gerilim noktas\u0131 olan %5 seviyesine yeniden y\u00fckseldi; ancak bu art\u0131\u015f, haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki kadar sert bir hisse sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemedi. Daha sakin tepki, piyasa faizleri yukar\u0131 itilirken bile dot plot\u2019un ima etti\u011fi politika patikas\u0131n\u0131n piyasaya sindirildi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 genelinde d\u00fczensiz bir risk azalt\u0131m\u0131na dair fazla kan\u0131t yoktu: de\u011ferli metaller enflasyon kaynakl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir talep g\u00f6rmezken, sanayi hisseleri dengelendi. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u015firketler de istikrar kazand\u0131; Russell 2000 g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte tutunurken, yar\u0131 iletkenler gibi teknoloji alanlar\u0131nda da dengeleyici bir davran\u0131\u015f izlendi. \u015eimdi dikkatler, S&P 500\u2019de piyasa yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n (breadth) buradan itibaren bozulup bozulmayaca\u011f\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor; bu da tepki y\u00fckseli\u015finin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131nayacak.<\/p>\n
Piyasa getirileri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etse de, hisselerin y\u00fcksek seviyelerini savundu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; t\u0131pk\u0131 ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru izledi\u011fimiz g\u00fcn sonu geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri gibi. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri kritik psikolojik seviyelere yakla\u015f\u0131rken dahi, daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz yo\u011fun panik sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 devreye girmiyor. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, piyasa taraf\u0131ndan belirlenen getiriler y\u00fckselse bile, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc faiz patikas\u0131ndan bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fcven ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu sakinlik riskli varl\u0131klarda da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte enflasyon kaynakl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir al\u0131m dalgas\u0131 yok. Bunun yerine, sanayi gibi d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel alanlar ve Russell 2000 endeksi g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafiklerinde dengelenmi\u015f durumda. Tarihsel olarak, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri Ekim 2023\u2019teki me\u015fhur %5,02 zirvesine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli hisselerde benzer bir dengelenme tahvil sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n en sert b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn duraksad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7inde, \u00f6nde gelen yar\u0131 iletken hisseleri de dengelenme sinyalleri veriyor; bu da bizim i\u00e7in taktik bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Ancak genel piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 olduk\u00e7a dar oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in tetikte kalmak gerekiyor. Son veriler, S&P 500 hisselerinin yaln\u0131zca yakla\u015f\u0131k %38\u2019inin 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor; bu da zeminin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda S&P 500 piyasa yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyerek bozulma i\u015faretleri aramalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yay\u0131l\u0131m toparlanmazsa, ani momentum ters d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri beklenmeli ve daha geni\u015f endekslerde k\u0131sa vadeli koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131yla haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131lmal\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, k\u0131sa vadeli tepki rallilerini yakalamak i\u00e7in dayan\u0131kl\u0131 teknoloji ve sanayi hisselerinde bo\u011fa call spread stratejileri kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD borsalar\u0131 ge\u00e7 toparland\u0131; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri yeniden %5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131ksa da panik yok. Fed patikas\u0131 sindiriliyor. As\u0131l test: S&P 500 yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131. Dar kat\u0131l\u0131mda koruma put\u2019u, se\u00e7ici bo\u011fa spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49983,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t