USD\/JPY Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 157,45 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve Japon Yeni\u2019nin, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na ve olas\u0131 d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesine y\u00f6nelik yeniden artan endi\u015felere ra\u011fmen zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla %0,36 y\u00fckseldi. Hamle, ge\u00e7en hafta ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, Fed\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l aradan sonra ilk kez politika faizini art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 izledi; Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh da daha \u015fahin bir ton benimsedi. Piyasalar art\u0131k Ekim\u2019de ilave 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %53 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor (bir hafta \u00f6nce %43) ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir ek art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %90 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor (\u00f6nceki %80).<\/p>\n\n
Japonya\u2019da BoJ, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %1,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; bu seviye 31 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fckse\u011fi. Ancak kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k y\u00f6nlendirme ve iki kurul \u00fcyesinden \u201csab\u0131r\u201d \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131, JPY\u2019ye deste\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. BoJ\u2019un piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131yla yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan yetkililerin incelemesi yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131rken, Dolar Endeksi 100,56 ile yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n 100,35 civar\u0131nda seyretti. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri, ge\u00e7en hafta 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %5,04\u2019\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra %4,97 d\u00fczeyindeydi; Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi enflasyon risk primini canl\u0131 tuttu. Donald Trump ayr\u0131ca BM Genel Kurulu\u2019nda \u0130ran\u2019dan Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeye muhtemelen a\u00e7\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Teknik tarafta USD\/JPY, 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (156,16) ve 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (155,10) \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; diren\u00e7 158,00 seviyesinde, RSI 61 civar\u0131nda. Destek seviyeleri 156,50, 155,50 ve 155,10 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fcksek volatilite beklentisiyle USD\/JPY straddle veya strangle alarak pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite 157,45 civar\u0131nda seyrederken ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale riski g\u00fcndemdeyken, iki y\u00f6nde de keskin ve ani fiyat hareketleri bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2024\u2019te m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde yenin bir g\u00fcnde 500 pipin \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; 158,00 e\u015fi\u011finin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde bu senaryonun kolayl\u0131kla tekrarlanabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
BoJ m\u00fcdahalesi kaynakl\u0131 ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, bariyerleri 155,10 gibi kilit destek seviyelerinin hemen alt\u0131na yerle\u015ftirilmi\u015f knock-out put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00fcr\u00fcnler, \u015fahin Fed\u2019den kaynaklanan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131rken, Japon yetkililerin piyasaya girmesi durumunda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar. K\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite, ge\u00e7mi\u015f m\u00fcdahale d\u00f6nemlerinde tarihsel olarak %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu da prim al\u0131m\u0131na dayal\u0131 stratejileri \u015fu anda olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerine de bak\u0131lmal\u0131. CME FedWatch arac\u0131nda Ekim\u2019de Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %53\u2019e fiyatlan\u0131rken, piyasan\u0131n Ba\u015fkan Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015funa uyum sa\u011flamas\u0131yla Ekim Fed Funds vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon, olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek bir i\u015flem sunuyor. \u00d6te yandan BoJ i\u00e7indeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131, Japon Devlet Tahvili (JGB) vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir; yava\u015f normalle\u015fmenin JPY faizlerini bask\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda %4,97 seviyesini test eden ve jeopolitik gerilimlerle destek bulan ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini tavsiye ediyoruz. Getiriler 2007 zirveleri olan %5,00 \u00fczeri b\u00f6lgeye yeniden y\u00f6nelirse, dolar ek temel destek bulacak ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yeni savunmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r. Bu makro g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonun uzun vadeli ABD faizlerini y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle getiri e\u011frisi dikle\u015fmesi (steepener) swaplar\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ifade edilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar\/yen 157,45\u2019te: Fed\u2019in \u015fahinle\u015fmesi ve artan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken, BoJ\u2019un 31 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yetmedi. 158 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa m\u00fcdahale\/volatilite patlayabilir; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49975,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68657","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t