{"id":68648,"date":"2026-09-21T16:51:42","date_gmt":"2026-09-21T16:51:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/eur-gbp-alman-siyaseti-ve-ecb-boe-politika-ayrismasinin-gorunumu-sekillendirmesiyle-08575-yakininda-tutunuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T16:51:42","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T16:51:42","slug":"eur-gbp-alman-siyaseti-ve-ecb-boe-politika-ayrismasinin-gorunumu-sekillendirmesiyle-08575-yakininda-tutunuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/eur-gbp-alman-siyaseti-ve-ecb-boe-politika-ayrismasinin-gorunumu-sekillendirmesiyle-08575-yakininda-tutunuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/GBP, Alman siyaseti ve ECB\u2013BoE politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u015fekillendirmesiyle 0,8575 yak\u0131n\u0131nda tutunuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/GBP, Euro\u2019nun Sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ivme kazanmakta zorlanmas\u0131yla Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,8575 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. Almanya\u2019da \u015eans\u00f6lye Friedrich Merz\u2019in partisinin b\u00f6lgesel se\u00e7imlerde ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yenilgi sonras\u0131 siyasi risklerin yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 tek para birimini bask\u0131larken, daha yumu\u015fak enerji maliyetleri bir miktar destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Brent petrol 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi ve ge\u00e7en haftaki zirvelerinin %8\u2019den fazla alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu t\u00fcr bir hareket, Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in ithal maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 genellikle hafifletir.<\/p>\n\n

Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) ile \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) aras\u0131ndaki politika fark\u0131 bulunuyor. ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde, kararlar\u0131n veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 ve toplant\u0131dan toplant\u0131ya al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineledi. BoE Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey ise ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 gerekebilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Rabobank, ECB\u2019nin mevduat faizini Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak mevcut %2,50\u2019den %2,75\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesini beklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bankaya g\u00f6re bu ad\u0131m daha geni\u015f bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan ziyade ek bir enerji \u015fokuna yan\u0131t niteli\u011finde. Rabobank, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Mart ay\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ece\u011fini ve %2,50 \u00fczerindeki seviyelerin ge\u00e7ici olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerin 2027\u2019nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda gelebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Lagarde\u2019\u0131n Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde Frankfurt\u2019ta konu\u015fma yapmas\u0131 beklenirken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc Eyl\u00fcl PMI verileri \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n\n

EUR\/GBP Volatilitesi i\u00e7in T\u00fcrev Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 0,8575 seviyesi \u00e7evresinde konsolide olan EUR\/GBP paritesinde artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkarak son zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekilen Brent petrol ile Alman siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 z\u0131t kuvvetler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli straddle stratejileri olduk\u00e7a etkili olabilir. Tarihsel olarak, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ani siyasi de\u011fi\u015fim d\u00f6nemlerinde EUR\/GBP \u00f6rt\u00fck volatilitesi %1,5 ile %2 aras\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7rama e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir; bu da mevcut ortamda opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131na dayal\u0131 stratejileri daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

Almanya\u2019daki b\u00f6lgesel se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n yaratabilece\u011fi ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in Euro \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u015eans\u00f6lye Friedrich Merz\u2019in ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 siyasi gerileme, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisinde ekonomik reformlar\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu durum tarihsel olarak tek para birimini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f veriler, Almanya\u2019da uzayan siyasi t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131n EUR\/GBP kurunu 0,8400 civar\u0131ndaki kritik psikolojik destek seviyelerine do\u011fru kolayl\u0131kla bask\u0131layabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n

Portf\u00f6y Konumland\u0131rmas\u0131 ve Veriye Dayal\u0131 \u0130\u015flem Kurulumlar\u0131<\/h3>\n\n

Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen yap\u0131\u015fkan enerji maliyetlerinin etkisiyle Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ECB\u2019nin faizi %2,75\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6ylerimizi de konumland\u0131rmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, enflasyon beklentilerini \u00e7\u0131palamak amac\u0131yla ge\u00e7ici bir hamle olma ihtimali y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fundan, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz swaplar\u0131yla yak\u0131n vadeli getiri priminin hedeflenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ECB\u2019nin 2027\u2019nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yeniden gev\u015femeye y\u00f6nelmesi muhtemelken, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n

Bu haftan\u0131n yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemli kataliz\u00f6rlerinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verilerini yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k imalat PMI\u2019lar\u0131 50,0\u2019lik daralma-geni\u015fleme e\u015fi\u011fi civar\u0131nda seyrederken, olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz Sterlin\u2019i destekleyebilir ve EUR\/GBP \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Verilerin ard\u0131ndan olu\u015fabilecek h\u0131zl\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 yakalamak amac\u0131yla 0,8520 destek ve 0,8610 diren\u00e7 bantlar\u0131 \u00e7evresinde s\u0131k\u0131 limit emirleri olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EUR\/GBP 0,8575\u2019te yatay: Almanya\u2019daki siyasi \u015fok Euro\u2019yu zorlarken Brent\u2019in 100$ alt\u0131na inmesi nefes ald\u0131r\u0131yor. ECB-BoE ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, Lagarde konu\u015fmas\u0131 ve PMI\u2019lar \u00f6ncesi volatilite\/opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49969,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t