WTI, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fleterek Avrupa seans\u0131nda 94,00 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc ge\u00e7en haftaki zirvelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 alt\u0131na indi. Hareket, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ihracat\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Bu geli\u015fme, CNBC\u2019nin JP Morgan raporuna dayand\u0131rarak aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131ndaki aksakl\u0131\u011fa ra\u011fmen arz endi\u015felerini hafifletti.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcvenlik cephesindeki geli\u015fmeler fiyatlamay\u0131 iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkiledi. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM) Ba\u015fkan\u0131, son iki haftada H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan yap\u0131lan sevkiyatlar\u0131n, ABD donanmas\u0131n\u0131n korumas\u0131 ve may\u0131n temizleme faaliyetlerinin deste\u011fiyle son alt\u0131 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, Yemen\u2019de Tahran destekli Husilerin Riyad\u2019a f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenlemesi, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 tehditlerde bulunmas\u0131 ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yedinci aya yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla fiyatlar 100 dolar b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seyrini korudu. Suudi yetkililer, Yanbu ve di\u011fer noktalara y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n engellendi\u011fini ve petrol altyap\u0131s\u0131nda yeni bir hasar tespit edilmedi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) 94 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda seyrederken petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli bir toparlanmaya pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Suudi ihracat\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde fiyatlar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekse de, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki kal\u0131c\u0131 jeopolitik tehditler bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin yak\u0131nda duraklayaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu f\u0131rsat\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, y\u00fcksek primlerden yararlanmak amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131na ve 90 dolar destek seviyesine yak\u0131n bir \u201cg\u00fcvenlik tamponu\u201d olu\u015fturulmas\u0131na odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, jeopolitik riskler ba\u015fl\u0131ca enerji koridorlar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit etti\u011finde, fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri genellikle k\u0131sa s\u00fcrer ve sert tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. \u00d6rne\u011fin, k\u00fcresel petrol talebinin g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,2 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde artmas\u0131 beklenirken, k\u00fcresel yedek kapasite y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 say\u0131da \u00fclkede yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bo\u011fa put spread\u2019leri (bull put spreads) kullanmak, bu y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k ortam\u0131nda d\u00fczenli gelir \u00fcretmemizi sa\u011flarken potansiyel zararlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck s\u0131v\u0131 enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini ta\u015f\u0131yan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan sevkiyatlar deniz g\u00fcc\u00fc korumas\u0131 alt\u0131nda s\u00fcrse de, gerilimin t\u0131rmanma riski y\u00fcksek. Drone veya f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n neden olabilece\u011fi ani arz kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 hedge amac\u0131yla, portf\u00f6ye kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 98 dolar civar\u0131nda olan uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n eklenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu dengeli kurgu, fiyatlar\u0131n istikrar kazanmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 elde ederken b\u00f6lgesel tansiyonun artmas\u0131 halinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyeli de korur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde yeni perde: WTI 94 dolar alt\u0131na sark\u0131p zirveden %8 gerilerken Suudi ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz sevkiyat\u0131 rekor, Orta Do\u011fu riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Strateji: OTM put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, bull put spread, 98$ call hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68642","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t