ABD dolar\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n Federal Rezerv\u2019in daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla haftaya daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flad\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) yakla\u015f\u0131k 100,37 seviyesinde %0,15 y\u00fckselirken, CME FedWatch bu y\u0131l en az bir ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse %88 olarak hesaplad\u0131. Bu yeniden fiyatlama, ge\u00e7en hafta faizlerin 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131larak %3,75\u2013%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ilave ad\u0131mlar\u0131n sinyallenmesini izledi. Fed\u2019in sessiz d\u00f6nemi sona ererken, Chicago Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Austan Goolsbee\u2019nin Londra\u2019da konu\u015fma yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
Minneapolis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Neel Kashkari, y\u00fcksek enflasyonun politika a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel bir endi\u015fe olmaya devam etti\u011fini yineledi. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 FXS Speechtracker\u2019da 6,3\u2019l\u00fck tarihsel ortalamaya kar\u015f\u0131 6,2 puan ald\u0131 ve FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi 1,47 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek 150,61\u2019e geriledi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n n\u00f6tr e\u015fik olan 100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Di\u011fer yandan, dikkatler 21 Eyl\u00fcl Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc New York\u2019ta ba\u015flayacak ve ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ile K\u00f6rfez liderlerinin kat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 BM Genel Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor. Teknik tarafta DXY 100,35\u2019ten i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 99,63 seviyesindeki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (EMA) \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken RSI 63,15\u2019te; ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n zirvesi 100,55 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) halihaz\u0131rda 100,35 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Greenback\u2019te s\u00fcren g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Endeksin 99,63\u2019teki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n (EMA) \u00fczerine net bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, USD bazl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemlerde uzun pozisyonu olduk\u00e7a uygulanabilir bir strateji haline getiriyor. Tarihsel olarak DXY, RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 63 iken bu EMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yorulma sinyalleri g\u00f6r\u00fclmeden \u00f6nce \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ilave %1,2\u2013%1,5\u2019lik bir ralli yapabiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
CME FedWatch arac\u0131n\u0131n bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %88 g\u00f6stermesi nedeniyle, y\u00fckselen tahvil getirilerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmaya da bakmal\u0131y\u0131z. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu \u015fahin ivmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu alabilir veya sabit \u00f6deyen (payer) swap pozisyonlar\u0131na girebilir. Bu hamleler, Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi\u2019nin 150,61 gibi y\u00fcksek bir seviyede kalmas\u0131yla da destekleniyor; bu da tarihsel olarak s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 63,15 seviyesindeyken piyasa momentum kazan\u0131yor, ancak hen\u00fcz a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde de\u011fil. 100,55\u2019teki son zirvenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyerek, dolar\u0131n Euro ve Sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ancak trendin aniden tersine d\u00f6nmesi halinde riskleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in 99,63 destek seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar\u0131 durdur (stop-loss) seviyeleri belirlemeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, bug\u00fcn New York\u2019ta ba\u015flayan BM Genel Kurulu k\u0131sa vadede piyasa volatilitesini art\u0131rabilir. Bu belirsizlikten faydalanmak i\u00e7in maj\u00f6r d\u00f6viz paritelerinde uzun straddle i\u015flemleriyle, sert ve ani fiyat hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyebiliriz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, y\u00fcksek profilli diplomatik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler s\u0131ras\u0131nda dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak volatiliteden getiri elde etmeyi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar yeni haftaya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flad\u0131: DXY 100,37\u2019de, Fed\u2019in ek faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %88. \u015eahin Fed s\u00f6ylemi ve BM g\u00fcndemi volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131rken, teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm 100,55 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla ralli sinyali veriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t