{"id":68631,"date":"2026-09-21T08:51:32","date_gmt":"2026-09-21T08:51:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fransa-riskinin-yeniden-fiyatlanmasiyla-euro-bolgesi-tahvillerinde-satis-getiri-egrisi-yataylasiyor-euro-zayifliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T08:51:32","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T08:51:32","slug":"fransa-riskinin-yeniden-fiyatlanmasiyla-euro-bolgesi-tahvillerinde-satis-getiri-egrisi-yataylasiyor-euro-zayifliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fransa-riskinin-yeniden-fiyatlanmasiyla-euro-bolgesi-tahvillerinde-satis-getiri-egrisi-yataylasiyor-euro-zayifliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Fransa Riskinin Yeniden Fiyatlanmas\u0131yla Euro B\u00f6lgesi Tahvillerinde Sat\u0131\u015f; Getiri E\u011frisi Yatayla\u015f\u0131yor, Euro Zay\u0131fl\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Avrupa devlet tahvilleri Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin Fransa\u2019n\u0131n egemen riskinin sert bi\u00e7imde yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131yla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk gelmesiyle ay\u0131 d\u00fczle\u015fmesi (bear-flattening) e\u015fli\u011finde sat\u0131\u015f yedi. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bund getirisi 5\u20136 baz puan y\u00fckselerek %3,28\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 5 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %3,52\u2019ye geldi. FX taraf\u0131nda EUR\/USD 1,15\u2019in alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n

ECB\u2019nin t\u00fcketici anketi A\u011fustos\u2019ta enflasyon beklentilerinde hafif bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye i\u015faret etti: 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k medyan %3,0 y\/y\u2019ye, 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm %2,9 y\/y\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana gerileyen ve ard\u0131ndan %3 civar\u0131nda yatay seyreden g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan geldi. Piyasalar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc \u015fimdi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00f6nc\u00fc Eyl\u00fcl PMI\u2019lar\u0131nda; \u00f6zellikle imalatta, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yaz d\u00f6neminin ard\u0131ndan euro b\u00f6lgesi ivmesinin s\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fi izlenecek. Alman siyaseti de \u015eans\u00f6lye Merz\u2019in CDU\u2019sunun Mecklenburg-Vorpommern\u2019de %4,9 ve Berlin\u2019de %18,8 almas\u0131yla yeniden oda\u011fa girdi; Mecklenburg-Vorpommern\u2019de AfD %38,2 ile SPD\u2019nin %35,5\u2019inin \u00f6n\u00fcnde yer al\u0131rken, Berlin\u2019i Die Linke %25,7 ile kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n

Getiri E\u011frisi Stratejileri ve Enflasyon Riski<\/h3>\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme haz\u0131rl\u0131k olarak, EUR getiri e\u011frisinde ilave d\u00fczle\u015fmeye (flattening) oynayacak \u015fekilde pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bund getirisinin %3,28\u2019e ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n %3,52\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesiyle, piyasalar\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 sonucu getiri fark\u0131 daral\u0131yor. ECB\u2019nin faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz (STIR) vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

ECB\u2019nin t\u00fcketici enflasyon beklentilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn durmas\u0131 ve %3,0 seviyesinde plato yapmas\u0131, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak t\u00fcketici beklentileri bu seviyede yatayla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ECB\u2019nin 2023 sonundaki faiz \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcne benzer \u015fekilde \u015fahin tarafa meyletme e\u011filimi art\u0131yor. Bu haftaki \u00f6nc\u00fc Eyl\u00fcl PMI a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Euribor vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerine opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

FX Konumlanmas\u0131 ve Siyasi Riskler<\/h3>\n

Paritenin 1,15 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya k\u0131sa pozisyon kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. CDU\u2019nun zay\u0131f b\u00f6lgesel se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Almanya\u2019da artan siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k ile Fransa\u2019n\u0131n mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair endi\u015feler euronun \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu durum, Fransa-Almanya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n 80 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine geni\u015flemesinde de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu egemen risk seviyesi, 2024\u2019teki b\u00fct\u00e7e kaynakl\u0131 paniklerden bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc PMI verilerine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n A\u011fustos\u2019taki zay\u0131f 45,8 de\u011ferinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p \u00e7\u0131kamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. Beklenmedik bir daralma, faiz beklentilerinde sert bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f tetikleyebilir; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler ise ay\u0131 d\u00fczle\u015fmesi trendini muhtemelen peki\u015ftirir. Petrol ve do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in enerji ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerde koruyucu opsiyonlar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Avrupa tahvilleri enerji ve Fransa riskiyle sat\u0131l\u0131rken ay\u0131 d\u00fczle\u015fmesi h\u0131zland\u0131: Bund 2Y %3,28, 10Y %3,52. ECB beklentileri %3\u2019e dayand\u0131. G\u00f6zler PMI\u2019da; EUR\/USD bask\u0131da, siyasi risk art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50001,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t