Alt\u0131n, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.365 dolara gerileyerek ivme kaybetti. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131 ABD tahvil getirileri ile dolar\u0131 desteklemeye devam etti. Reuters\u2019\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re b\u00f6lgede h\u00fck\u00fcmetler, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Washington\u2019un yeni bir bombard\u0131man kampanyas\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair istihbarata sahip oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan daha fazla \u015fiddete kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131yor; petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon riski de k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Fed, ge\u00e7en hafta faizi 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 3,75\u20134,0 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltti ve ilave art\u0131\u015flara i\u015faret etti. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 56,5.<\/p>\n
Kansas City Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jeffrey Schmid, enflasyonun y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret eden verileri gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek hamleyi desteklerken, Minneapolis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Neel Kashkari enflasyonun yaln\u0131zca enerjiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmay\u0131p bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. OCBC, daha yumu\u015fak ABD verilerinin ileride getirileri ve dolar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fini belirtse de, yak\u0131n vadede y\u00fcksek getiriler ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Schmid\u2019in FXS Speechtracker skoru 10 \u00fczerinden 8 olurken, tarihsel ortalama 7,2 seviyesinde; FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi ise 0,42 art\u0131\u015fla 152,09\u2019a y\u00fckselerek 100 n\u00f6tr e\u015fi\u011finin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 4.320 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, diren\u00e7 4.410 ve 4.615 dolar seviyelerinde; destek ise 4.200 dolar civar\u0131nda bulunuyor. RSI 51,13 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
\u015eahin Fed alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemesiyle, alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede 4.320 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6rmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Ekim\u2019de bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha ihtimalinin y\u00fczde 56,5 olmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli vade yap\u0131s\u0131na sahip sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak bu yak\u0131n vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir. Tarihsel olarak y\u00fckselen reel getiriler, getiri \u00fcretmeyen varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturur; bu da ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00fczeltmeyi olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131 k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
Anl\u0131k bask\u0131ya ra\u011fmen, tarihsel olarak g\u00fcvenli liman giri\u015flerini tetikleyen Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla desteklenen daha geni\u015f y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131rmamak gerekir. 2023 sonu ve 2024 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki jeopolitik \u015foklar gibi \u00f6nceki b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda, enerji enflasyonu endi\u015feleri artarken alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 bir aydan k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede y\u00fczde 8 ila y\u00fczde 10\u2019un \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 4.320 dolar destek seviyesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede 4.615 dolara do\u011fru bir sonraki y\u00fckseli\u015f aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak amac\u0131yla al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ile ciddi jeopolitik risklerin \u00e7arp\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu tabloda piyasa volatilitesinin artmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. Bu ortam, her iki y\u00f6ne sert k\u0131r\u0131lma hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle stratejileriyle de\u011ferlendirilebilir. B\u00f6ylece ister \u015fahin faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ister g\u00fcvenli liman talebi \u00f6ne ge\u00e7sin, b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 do\u011far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda fren: XAU\/USD Asya\u2019da 4.365$\u2019a indi. Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi dolar-getirileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; petrol enflasyonu bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Teknikte 4.320$ kritik, opsiyonlarda put\/call ve straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t