USD\/CAD haftaya, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 1.4000\u2019in \u00fczerindeki (7 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye) zirveden gelen geri \u00e7ekilmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan dipten al\u0131mlarla ba\u015flad\u0131 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k iki haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Suudi Arabistan\u2019dan sevkiyatlar\u0131n toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretlerin arz endi\u015felerini azaltmas\u0131yla petrol\u00fcn bir haftay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilemesi, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 da pariteyi destekledi: Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) bu ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda politika faizini %2,25\u2019te sabit tutarken, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ge\u00e7en \u00e7ar\u015famba \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin ard\u0131ndan ilk faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yaparak ABD\u2013Kanada faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti.<\/p>\n
Ticaret \u00f6nlemleri de CAD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. ABD, 22 A\u011fustos\u2019ta yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyar dolarl\u0131k Kanada men\u015feli \u00fcr\u00fcne %50 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi uygulad\u0131; Kanada ise 8 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de misilleme olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyar dolarl\u0131k ABD \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcne %15\u2019ten %50\u2019ye uzanan oranlarda ek vergi getirdi. Fed\u2019in noktasal grafik (dot plot) projeksiyonlar\u0131 bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha i\u015faret ederken, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Washington ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri yeniden ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in yedi ko\u015ful \u00f6ne s\u00fcrmesi ve Yemen\u2019de \u0130ran destekli Husilerin Riyad\u2019a f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 bildirmesinin ard\u0131ndan Orta Do\u011fu riskleri g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan parite, 1,3924\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n ve kritik Fibonacci seviyelerinin \u00fczerinde tutunurken; diren\u00e7 1,4052, 1,4137 ve 1,4246\u2019da, destek ise 1,3992, 1,3932, 1,3924, 1,3858 ve 1,3738\u2019de izleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev i\u015flemlerle u\u011fra\u015fan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak veya bo\u011fa call spread stratejisi ba\u015flatmak y\u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Parite psikolojik 1,4000 e\u015fi\u011fi yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyrederken Kanada Dolar\u0131 belirgin bir k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k sergiliyor. Teknik e\u011filim 1,3924\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde net bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kalmaya devam ederken, bir sonraki diren\u00e7 seviyesi olan 1,4052\u2019nin hedeflenmesi y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 bir senaryo.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc, Fed ile BoC aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. Fed\u2019in son faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, BoC\u2019nin politika faizini %2,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131na k\u0131yasla, ABD-Kanada 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 110 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu geni\u015fleyen getiri fark\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131 cinsi varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutmay\u0131 \u00e7ok daha cazip hale getirerek uzun pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Loonie \u00fczerindeki ek bask\u0131 unsurlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda gerileyen enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve ticaret misillemelerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hasar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; WTI ham petrol bu ay %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 68 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru geriledi. Ucuz petrol\u00fcn yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, 20 milyar dolarl\u0131k mal grubuna uygulanan \u00e7ift tarafl\u0131 %50 tarifeler, ihracat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Kanada ekonomisinde \u015fimdiden bir y\u00fck olu\u015fturmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu birle\u015fik ekonomik kuvvetlerin Kanada Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz; bu nedenle CAD \u00fczerinde koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 ak\u0131ll\u0131 bir riskten korunma (hedge) arac\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da alevlenen jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de k\u00fcresel risk primlerini y\u00fcksek tutarak g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nlendiriyor. Tarihsel olarak, jeopolitik gerilimlerin \u015fahin Fed dot plot beklentileriyle birlikte y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda kal\u0131c\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. 1,3992 destek seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmelerin, uzun y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon biriktirmek i\u00e7in al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CAD\u2019de ralli s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: zay\u0131f petrol, BoC\u2013Fed faiz ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 tarifeler CAD\u2019i bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Parite 1,4000 \u00fcst\u00fcnde; opsiyonda call\/bo\u011fa spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor, hedef 1,4052. Jeopolitik risk ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t