USD\/JPY, Asya seans\u0131nda 157,10\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckseldikten sonra gev\u015feyerek, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) g\u00fcvercin tondaki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen iki haftan\u0131n zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekildi. Parite 156,75 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, BoJ\u2019un k\u0131sa vadeli faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 31 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine y\u00fckseltmesiyle olu\u015fan politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yak\u0131n vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekledi. Ancak 7\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 2\u2019lik oy b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesi ve A\u011fustos enflasyonunun s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa geriledi\u011fine i\u015faret eden veriler, daha h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyerek yeni \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131 ve pariteyi destekli tuttu.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin jeopolitik risk primini canl\u0131 tutmas\u0131yla dolar destek buldu: Yemen\u2019de \u0130ran destekli Husiler, Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA\u2019larla Riyad\u2019daki hassas noktalar\u0131 vurduklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; \u0130ran ise ABD ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in yedi ko\u015ful ortaya koydu. Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha i\u015faret eden \u015fahin y\u00f6nlendirmesi de dolara destek verdi; ancak Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc kur kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yeniden m\u00fcdahaleye gidebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki s\u00f6ylemler y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Teknik tarafta diren\u00e7 4 saatlik grafikte 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019da 157,61 ve %61,8 Fibonacci seviyesinde 157,49\u2019da bulunuyor; bu b\u00f6lgenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 158,75\u2019i, ard\u0131ndan 160,36\u2019y\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirirken, destekler 156,60, 155,72, 154,62 ve 152,85 seviyelerinde izleniyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY paritesini, 156,75 civar\u0131nda ve son iki haftan\u0131n zirvesi olan 157,10\u2019un hemen alt\u0131nda seyrederken yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. K\u0131sa vadeli momentum al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n lehine olsa da, BoJ\u2019un son faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle ani y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimlerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Tarihsel olarak yen 157 seviyesinin \u00fczerine do\u011fru zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, resmi m\u00fcdahale riski belirgin \u015fekilde art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Riski y\u00f6netmek ad\u0131na, Japon h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin benzer de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in tek bir ayda rekor 9,8 trilyon yen (yakla\u015f\u0131k 62 milyar dolar) harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlamak gerekir. Bu emsal, ani ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY\u2019de paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmemiz gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 200 periyotluk Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) 157,61\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u015fimdilik ilave y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc korurken Japonya\u2019da i\u00e7 enflasyonun gev\u015femesi nedeniyle faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izlemeyi \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilleri ile Japon devlet tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki 300 baz puan\u0131 a\u015fan geni\u015f getiri fark\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeye devam ediyor. \u00d6te yandan Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan gerilim ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Ba\u015fkan Trump ile Xi Jinping aras\u0131ndaki yakla\u015fan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme, yene y\u00f6nelik \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli t\u00fcrev stratejilerimizde, bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131 ve zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyelerini konumlamak i\u00e7in kritik teknik seviyelere odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Fiyat\u0131n 157,49\u2019daki yo\u011fun diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerine kararl\u0131 \u015fekilde \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde, 158,75\u2019e ve potansiyel olarak 160,36\u2019ya do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f beklenebilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ise, k\u0131sa pozisyonlar i\u00e7in k\u00e2r al (take-profit) hedeflerini belirlerken 156,60 ve 155,72 destek seviyelerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY 157,10\u2019dan 156,75\u2019e gev\u015fedi: BoJ\u2019un g\u00fcvercin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve oy b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesi yeni bask\u0131lad\u0131. Fed \u015fahin, jeopolitik riskler dolar\u0131 destekliyor; 157 \u00fcst\u00fcnde m\u00fcdahale riski, diren\u00e7 157,49-157,61.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50190,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t