Sterlin, \u00f6nceki seansta kaydedilen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Asya i\u015flemlerinde GBP\/USD\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3390\u2019a gerilemesiyle ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. Dolar, ge\u00e7en hafta enflasyonu dizginlemeyi hedefleyen ve ilave ad\u0131mlara i\u015faret eden y\u00f6nlendirmeyle birlikte gelen 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u2014\u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131\u2014ard\u0131ndan piyasalar\u0131n daha \u015fahin bir Fed patikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu. CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re, Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin fiyatlama de\u011fi\u015fti; z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131k %56,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek bir hafta \u00f6nceki yakla\u015f\u0131k %42,5 seviyesinden artt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta siyasi zemin \u201cdestekleyici\u201d olarak nitelendirildi; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) sinyallerini de\u011ferlendirirken, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin mali duru\u015funa y\u00f6nelik s\u00fcregelen g\u00fcvenin pariteye tampon sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. FXS Speechtracker skoru tarihsel 6,6 seviyesine k\u0131yasla 7,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, BoE enflasyon risklerinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti ve T\u00dcFE\u2019nin 2027\u2019nin ba\u015flar\u0131nda %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini; daha \u00f6nce belirtilen %3,2\u2019lik tepe seviyeye k\u0131yasla projeksiyonun yukar\u0131 revize edildi\u011fini bildirdi. \u00dc\u00e7 \u00fcye faizin derhal %4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kullansa da \u00e7o\u011funluk faizi %3,75\u2019te tuttu; politika, 3\u00c7 GSYH\u2019nin %0,4 gelmesi, y\u0131ll\u0131k 46 milyar sterlinlik QT (parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma) program\u0131 ve APF kapsam\u0131ndaki gilt ihalelerinin Nisan 2027\u2019ye kadar durdurulmas\u0131yla birlikte ko\u015fullu olarak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u015eahin Fed\u2019in bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda Sterlin\u2019in 1,3390 civar\u0131nda tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Fed\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l sonra ilk kez faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 ve devam\u0131n\u0131n gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret etmesiyle ABD Dolar\u0131 ivme kazan\u0131yor. ABD ile Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki bu politika \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda taktik pozisyonlara elveri\u015fli bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Ekim\u2019de bir ABD faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %56,5\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rayarak bir hafta \u00f6nceki %42,5 seviyesinden y\u00fckseldi. Tarihsel olarak faiz beklentilerindeki bu t\u00fcr h\u0131zl\u0131 kaymalar, daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n fiyatlanmas\u0131yla Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131ma e\u011filiminde. Artan dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n uygun bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan BoE, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon riskleriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; 2027\u2019nin ba\u015flar\u0131nda T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %4\u2019\u00fc a\u015fabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor. \u00dc\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n acil faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kullanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n banka, bilan\u00e7o risklerini dikkatle y\u00f6netmek amac\u0131yla politika faizini %3,75\u2019te b\u0131rakt\u0131. Bu daha yava\u015f ve kademeli yakla\u015f\u0131m, Sterlin\u2019in h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket eden Dolar\u2019\u0131n gerisinde kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu ortamda, bir sonraki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde uzun straddle gibi volatilite stratejilerine bak\u0131labilir. Benzer parasal ayr\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde, b\u00fcy\u00fck politika kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki haftalarda kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 endekslerinin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman %12\u2019nin \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu opsiyonlar kullan\u0131larak, hangi para birimi \u00f6ne ge\u00e7erse ge\u00e7sin b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden getiri elde etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin, GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3390\u2019a \u00e7ekilmesiyle dolar bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Fed\u2019in 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve Ekim\u2019de ek art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %56,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 DXY\u2019yi desteklerken, BoE\u2019nin temkinli duru\u015fu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t