EUR\/USD, pazartesi erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1485\u2019e y\u00fckseldi, ancak daha geni\u015f belirleyiciler yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Fed, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rd\u0131 ve ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret etti; bu duru\u015f dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir. Jeopolitik risk de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD askeri \u00fcslerine misilleme uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ve Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n yeni sald\u0131r\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fcndeme getirmesinin ard\u0131ndan odakta kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu durum, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebini canl\u0131 tutabilir. ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde konu\u015fma yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ECB Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Boris Vujcic, faiz beklentilerinin daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak politika kararlar\u0131nda daha geni\u015f bir g\u00f6sterge setinin dikkate al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Para piyasalar\u0131 2027 sonuna kadar \u00fc\u00e7 ya da d\u00f6rt ek art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n ekimde gelmesi ve mevduat faizini %3,25 veya %3,50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 olas\u0131. Di\u011fer yandan FXS Speechtracker, Fed s\u00f6ylemini tarihsel 6,3\/10 ortalamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 6,2\/10 seviyesinde de\u011ferlendirdi; FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi ise 1,47 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek 150,61\u2019e geriledi. Teknik olarak EUR\/USD 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; RSI 36,4 seviyesinde. Destek 1,1460\u2019ta; diren\u00e7ler 1,1545, 1,1585 ve 1,1710\u2019da.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD paritesinin 1,1485 civar\u0131nda yo\u011fun bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, portf\u00f6ylerimizi 1,1460 kilit deste\u011finin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korumaya odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z. K\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) veya ay\u0131 put spread\u2019leri kullanmak, piyasada ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareket ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde riski s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rlarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten getiri elde etmemizi sa\u011flar. Tarihsel olarak RSI\u2019\u0131n 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda 36 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi benzer teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmler, vakalar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %63\u2019\u00fcnde ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendlere yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131 tehdit ederken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin belirgin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz. Buna pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, piyasan\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne k\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak sert fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmak \u00fczere uzun straddle stratejileri devreye al\u0131nabilir. Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem piyasa verileri, EUR\/USD ima edilen volatilitesinin jeopolitik tehditlerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ortalama %15 civar\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7rama yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin \u015fahinli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak euroda ge\u00e7ici bir rahatlama rallisi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse, bunu 1,1545 diren\u00e7 seviyesi yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon tesis etmek i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Fed\u2019in s\u00fcregelen \u015fahin duru\u015fu ve yeni y\u00f6netimin faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile uyumlu. Tarihsel olarak 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren pariteler, bu t\u00fcr geri \u00e7ekilme\/d\u00fczeltme seviyelerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131r; bu da t\u00fcrev piyasada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemler i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenilir bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 olu\u015fturur.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca ABD ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015fleyen getiri farklar\u0131n\u0131 izlemeliyiz; bu farklar halihaz\u0131rda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar\u0131 destekliyor. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde i\u015flem yaparak, para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ECB taraf\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 ila d\u00f6rt ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131ndan ve Fed\u2019in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen patikas\u0131na k\u0131yasla olu\u015fan farktan yararlanabiliriz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcler, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcrev spread\u2019ler \u00fczerinden i\u015flem yapman\u0131n, jeopolitik oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde do\u011frudan spot FX i\u015flemine k\u0131yasla daha istikrarl\u0131 bir getiri profili sundu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: EUR\/USD 1,1485\u2019te; Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi ve \u0130ran gerilimi dolar\u0131 destekliyor. ECB\u2019den ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi var, ancak teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f; 1,1460 kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t