\u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131 (PBoC), pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Kredi Ana Faiz Oranlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Loan Prime Rate – LPR) de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi; bir y\u0131ll\u0131k LPR\u2019yi %3,00\u2019te, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6sterge oran\u0131 ise %3,50\u2019de b\u0131rakt\u0131. D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda, yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda AUD\/USD %0,03 art\u0131\u015fla 0,7127 seviyesindeydi. LPR, \u00c7in\u2019de kredi ve konut kredilerinin fiyatlanmas\u0131nda referans oran olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, mevduat getirilerini ve renminbi kur kanal\u0131n\u0131 da etkiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
PBoC\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefler; ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve finansal \u0440\u0435\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043clarla birlikte, kur istikrar\u0131 dahil fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7eriyor. PBoC, \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti\u2019ne (PRC) ba\u011fl\u0131 devlet m\u00fclkiyetinde olup, y\u00f6netimde \u00c7in Kom\u00fcnist Partisi komitesi sekreteri rol\u00fc belirleyici konumda; Pan Gongsheng bu g\u00f6revi y\u00fcr\u00fctmenin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ba\u015fkanl\u0131k (guvern\u00f6rl\u00fck) g\u00f6revini de \u00fcstleniyor. Politika uygulamas\u0131; yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck ters repo faizi, Orta Vadeli Bor\u00e7 Verme Kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (Medium-term Lending Facility – MLF) ve d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleleri gibi ara\u00e7lar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Zorunlu Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Oran\u0131 (Reserve Requirement Ratio – RRR) \u00e7er\u00e7evesinden yararlan\u0131yor. \u00c7in ayr\u0131ca WeBank ve MYbank gibi dijital \u043a\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0442\u00f6rler dahil 19 \u00f6zel bankaya izin veriyor; \u00f6zel fonlarla tamamen sermayelendirilmi\u015f yerli kredit\u00f6rlerin 2014\u2019ten bu yana faaliyet g\u00f6stermesine de izin veriliyor.<\/p>\n\n
PBOC\u2019nin bug\u00fcn, 21 Eyl\u00fcl 2026 itibar\u0131yla, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k ve be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k LPR g\u00f6stergelerini %3,00 ve %3,50\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019e duyarl\u0131 varl\u0131klarda bir konsolidasyon d\u00f6nemine haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,7127\u2019ye h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi, piyasan\u0131n bu \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d karar\u0131n\u0131 zaten b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve emtia para birimleri i\u00e7in k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir rahatlama yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. K\u0131r\u0131lma momentumu kovalamak yerine, bu ge\u00e7ici istikrardan fayda sa\u011flayan k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon stratejilerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu araya ra\u011fmen, \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik arka plan\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalmaya devam ediyor; son sanayi \u00fcretimi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,5 band\u0131nda seyrederken, perakende sat\u0131\u015flardaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu veriler, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n beklemesinin yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7ici bir nefeslenme oldu\u011fu ve y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde ilave parasal gev\u015femenin g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki ila \u00fc\u00e7 haftada s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 fiyat hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in FTSE China A50 endeksi opsiyonlar\u0131nda iron condor gibi bant stratejileriyle i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00f6viz i\u015flemcileri i\u00e7in tarihsel veriler, PBOC\u2019nin faiz indirimlerine ara verdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019nda volatilite s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Halihaz\u0131rda AUD\/USD bir ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite yakla\u015f\u0131k %7,2 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da \u00e7\u0131plak opsiyon almaya k\u0131yasla debit spread\u2019leri daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00c7in ekonomik politikas\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 halinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc deste\u011fin korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayarak, 0,6950 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put\u2019lar\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte, savunmac\u0131 kalmak da \u00f6nemli; PBOC\u2019nin ay\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde MLF arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla beklenmedik bir likidite enjeksiyonu yapmas\u0131, piyasalarda h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7abilir. \u0130\u015flemciler, onshore renminbi\u2019yi yak\u0131ndan izlemeli; ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 7,15 seviyesinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 (USD\/CNY\u2019de yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m) h\u0131zl\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, maliyeti g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir g\u00fcvenlik a\u011f\u0131 olarak USD\/CNH\u2019de vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" PBoC LPR\u2019yi sabit tuttu: 1 y\u0131l %3,00, 5 y\u0131l %3,50. AUD\/USD 0,7127\u2019de. Piyasada bekle-g\u00f6r fiyatland\u0131; k\u0131sa vadede bant\/opsiyon stratejileri, A50 iron condor, AUD\u2019de spread ve USD\/CNH call ile korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t