AUD\/USD: Fed Faiz Art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, Avustralya \u0130stihdam\u0131 ve ABD\u2013\u00c7in G\u00fcmr\u00fck Vergisi G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD, Fed\u2019in 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret etmesinin ard\u0131ndan dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,7120 civar\u0131na geriledi. CME FedWatch arac\u0131ndaki fiyatlamalar Ekim\u2019de bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %56,5\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k %42,5 seviyesindeydi. Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Avustralya istihdam verilerine \u00e7evrildi; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n A\u011fustos\u2019ta %4,5\u2019te kalmas\u0131, istihdam\u0131n ise 20 bin artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak Donald Trump ve Xi Jinping\u2019in ABD\u2013\u00c7in g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi ate\u015fkesini g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Washington\u2019da bir araya gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
UOB Group, AUD\/USD\u2019nin daha \u00f6nce 0,7087\u2019de kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 0,7140 direncini izliyor ve parite bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece 0,7050 hedefinin korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor. Fed ileti\u015fimi de \u015fahin kald\u0131: Schmid, 7,2\/10\u2019luk baz seviyeye kar\u015f\u0131 8\/10 FXS Speechtracker puan\u0131 ald\u0131; enflasyon ise %2 hedefe kar\u015f\u0131 %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131. FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi 0,42 artarak 152,09\u2019a y\u00fckseldi ve 100\u2019l\u00fck n\u00f6tr e\u015fi\u011fin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Teknik olarak parite 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve Bollinger band\u0131n\u0131n alt band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde, ancak 0,7164 civar\u0131ndaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Bollinger SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda; RSI (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 48 seviyesinde. Diren\u00e7ler 0,7165 ve 0,7235; destekler 0,7120, 0,7091 ve 0,7078.<\/p>\n
Federal Rezerv\u2019in son faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,7120 seviyesi \u00e7evresinde tutunmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD enflasyonunun %3 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde kalmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu \u00fczerinden ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 \u201cgreenback\u201d (dolar) momentumundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda i\u015flem yapman\u0131n uygun bir tercih olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, Ekim\u2019de bir ABD faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %56,5\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu oran yaln\u0131zca bir hafta \u00f6nce %42,5 d\u00fczeyindeydi. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verilerinin destekledi\u011fi Fed\u2019in k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 politika patikas\u0131na g\u00fcvenin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcileri, ani ters d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flarken ek y\u00fckseli\u015fleri hedeflemek amac\u0131yla \u201cknock-out\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden uzun dolar pozisyonlar\u0131 kurgulamay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
Avustralya taraf\u0131nda ise Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc istihdam raporunu yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,5\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131 ve 20 bin ki\u015filik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyor. Avustralya\u2019da i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc say\u0131labilecek %66,8 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011finden, olas\u0131 bir pozitif s\u00fcrpriz Aussie\u2019de sert ama ge\u00e7ici bir toparlanmay\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu veriye y\u00f6nelik strateji olarak, iki y\u00f6ne olas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 yakalamak ad\u0131na bant (range) ikili opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Haftan\u0131n bir di\u011fer kritik ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Washington\u2019daki Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2013\u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Xi Jinping g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi olacak ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde etkileyecek. \u00c7in, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, ihracat gelirlerinin \u00fc\u00e7te birinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor; bu nedenle g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi ate\u015fkesinde sa\u011flanacak her ilerleme Aussie\u2019yi an\u0131nda destekler. Bu y\u00fcksek riskli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmenin yaratmas\u0131 beklenen sert volatiliteden faydalanmak i\u00e7in AUD\/USD\u2019de straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, Aussie\u2019nin toparlanma denemelerini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan 0,7140 seviyesini ana diren\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Parite 0,7140\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f yapabilirse, son d\u00f6nemdeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendin dengelendi\u011fine i\u015faret ederek 0,7165\u2019e do\u011fru alan a\u00e7abilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k diren\u00e7 korunursa, paritenin \u00f6nce 0,7091\u2019deki yak\u0131n deste\u011fe do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesini ve ard\u0131ndan 0,7078 civar\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamay\u0131 test etmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019in \u015fahin 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131 AUD\/USD\u2019yi 0,7120\u2019ye itti; Ekim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %56,5. G\u00f6zler Avustralya istihdam\u0131 ve Trump\u2013Xi g\u00fcmr\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinde: 0,7140 diren\u00e7, 0,7091\/0,7078 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t