USD\/CNH, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ra\u011fmen 6,70 seviyesine do\u011fru kademeli olarak geriliyor. Bu s\u0131rada, karasal referans kur da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken USD\/CNY fixing\u2019i 6,76\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda belirleniyor. Renminbi ayr\u0131ca, ABD\u2019nin \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 imalat kapasitesi\u201d iddialar\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yeni tarifelerle ilgili planlanan bir duyuruyu en az\u0131ndan gelecek haftaya kadar erteledi\u011fine ili\u015fkin haberlerle de destek buldu.<\/p>\n\n
Hareket, gelecek per\u015fembe Washington\u2019da yap\u0131lacak Trump\u2013\u015ei zirvesi \u00f6ncesinde geliyor. Liderlerin g\u00fcndeminde ticaretin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u0130ran ve yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n da yer almas\u0131 bekleniyor. Piyasalar, ABD\u2013\u00c7in ticaret ate\u015fkesinin kas\u0131m ay\u0131 sonras\u0131na uzat\u0131labilece\u011fi ihtimaline g\u00f6re pozisyonlan\u0131rken, kur taraf\u0131ndaki e\u011filim de toplant\u0131ya kadar RMB\u2019de ilave g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/CNH paritesinin, genel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalan ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n 6,70 seviyesine do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcz\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu hareketin arkas\u0131nda, \u00c7in para birimindeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme yer al\u0131yor. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBoC) g\u00fcnl\u00fck USD\/CNY referans kurunu istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 6,76\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda belirlemesi bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bunu, \u00c7in para birimi i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye dair net bir sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n\n
Bu kur g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, Pekin\u2019in gelecek per\u015fembe Washington\u2019da yap\u0131lacak ve yak\u0131ndan izlenen Trump-\u015ei zirvesi \u00f6ncesinde bir \u201ciyi niyet\u201d ad\u0131m\u0131 olarak da okunabilir. Her iki \u00fclkenin de, \u00f6zellikle a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 imalat kapasitesi tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda yeni tarife duyurular\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdilik ask\u0131ya almas\u0131, piyasa gerilimini azalt\u0131yor. Bu diplomatik pencerenin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta boyunca Renminbi\u2019yi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir patikada tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda en uygulanabilir strateji, zirveye kadar Yuan\u2019daki de\u011ferlenmenin s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak. Kur 6,70 destek seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CNH put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc getiri potansiyeli sunabilir. Tarihsel olarak benzer zirve \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemlerde k\u0131sa vadeli z\u0131mni volatilitenin geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da opsiyon al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada g\u00f6rece daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Renminbi lehine bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00c7in\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc makro g\u00f6stergeleriyle de destekleniyor. Buna, son d\u00f6nemde 3,28 trilyon dolarda dengelenen y\u00fcksek d\u00f6viz rezervleri de dahil. Ayr\u0131ca son veriler, \u00c7in\u2019in sanayi \u00fcretiminin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,5 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler \u00f6ncesinde Pekin\u2019e g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ekonomik zemin sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Zirvenin, ticaret ate\u015fkesinin kas\u0131m sonras\u0131na uzat\u0131lmas\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131 halinde USD\/CNH\u2019nin 6,70\u2019in belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken USD\/CNH 6,70\u2019e geriliyor: PBoC fixing\u2019i 6,76 alt\u0131nda, tarife duyurusu ertelendi. Trump\u2013\u015ei zirvesi \u00f6ncesi RMB g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; ate\u015fkes uzarsa 6,70 alt\u0131 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50076,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t