Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flad\u0131; ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,11 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle NZD\/USD, 0,5787 ile zirveyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 0,5725\u2019te i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l aradan sonra ilk faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi ve bunun da dolar\u0131n, G8 FX emsallerinin \u00e7o\u011funa kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fi bir haftan\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Fiyat hareketi 0,5787 b\u00f6lgesinden sert bir reddi i\u015faret ederken, pariteyi g\u00fcn\u00fcn dip seviyesine yak\u0131n b\u0131rakt\u0131 ve 0,5700\u2019\u00fc yeniden oda\u011fa ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI), eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ikinci kez a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131yor. 0,5700\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 8 Temmuz dip seviyesi olan 0,5671\u2019i g\u00fcndeme getirecek; bunu y\u0131l i\u00e7i en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye 0,5626 izleyecek. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde ise 0,5750 \u00fczerine bir hamle, dikkati 0,5800\u2019e, ard\u0131ndan 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019ya (SMA) 0,5834\u2019e \u00e7evirebilir; bunun \u00fczerinde 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 0,5853 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 0,5856 seviyeleri bulunuyor. Grafik d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, NZD\u2019nin y\u00f6n\u00fc \u00c7in talebi ve s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yken, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ) enflasyonu %1-%3 band\u0131nda, orta noktas\u0131 %2 olacak \u015fekilde hedefliyor; Fed\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 faiz farklar\u0131 da NZD\/USD\u2019yi \u015fekillendiriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla NZD\/USD paritesinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 0,5787 zirvesinden 0,5725\u2019e geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc; bu da sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n kontrol\u00fc net \u015fekilde elinde tuttu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Fiyat\u0131n kritik destek seviyesi olan 0,5700\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na kararl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip seviye 0,5626\u2019ya do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz, RSI\u2019\u0131n bu ay ikinci kez h\u0131zla a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla da destekleniyor. Bu momentum, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin hen\u00fcz t\u00fckenmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ederek k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir se\u00e7enek haline getiriyor. Riski y\u00f6netmek isteyenler i\u00e7in 0,5750 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerine s\u0131k\u0131 al\u0131m-stop (buy-stop) emirleri koymak, olas\u0131 ani yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltmelere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Temel tarafta, \u00f6zellikle Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n so\u011fuyan \u00c7in ekonomisine ba\u011fl\u0131 ihracat ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131lar\u0131 da dikkate almak gerekiyor. Do\u011fu Asya\u2019dan gelen son ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler, imalat faaliyetinde daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor; bu durum Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n kilit ihracat kalemlerine olan talebi do\u011frudan azalt\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ihalelerinde fiyatlar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filimi yans\u0131tmas\u0131yla, emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Kiwi \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 r\u00fczgarlar ters esmeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Buna ek olarak, piyasa Fed ile RBNZ aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na uyum sa\u011flarken faiz politikas\u0131 da belirleyici rol oynuyor. Tarihsel olarak ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n getiri avantaj\u0131 kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde Kiwi, ge\u00e7mi\u015f ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fclerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendlerine benzer \u015fekilde uzun soluklu sat\u0131\u015flarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131yor. Bu getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n, paritede anlaml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n bizi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131p 0,5750 direncinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde 0,5800\u2019e do\u011fru d\u00fczeltme niteli\u011finde bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi tetiklenebilir. Bu senaryoda, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama olan 0,5834 seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facakt\u0131r. Ancak bu t\u00fcr olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin, y\u00fckseli\u015f k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 kovalamak yerine k\u0131sa pozisyon biriktirmek i\u00e7in daha uygun giri\u015f noktalar\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kiwi\u2019de sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: NZD\/USD 0,5787\u2019den sert d\u00f6nd\u00fc, 0,5700 kritik. K\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 0,5671 ve 0,5626 hedefte; Fed-RBNZ faiz fark\u0131, \u00c7in talebi bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50546,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t