Sterlin, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Bunun nedeni, A\u011fustos ay\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n, t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131nda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir daralmaya i\u015faret eden beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, paritedeki tepkinin zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131yd\u0131. Hareket, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u015fahin tonda faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi; bu karar\u0131n GBP\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. \u0130ngiltere siyasetinin destekleyici oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirilirken, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin mali disiplin taahh\u00fcd\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade edildi.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik tarafta, Haziran\u2019da ba\u015flayan daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin, momentum g\u00f6stergeleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine i\u015faret etse de, korunmaya devam etti\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. RSI\u2019\u0131n 30 seviyesindeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m e\u015fi\u011fine ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali verdi\u011fi belirtilirken, y\u00fckselen destek hatt\u0131n\u0131n korunabilmesi i\u00e7in fiyatlaman\u0131n 1,33\u2019\u00fcn orta-alt band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi vurguland\u0131. K\u0131sa vadeli destek 1,3320 civar\u0131nda, diren\u00e7 ise 1,3480 \u00f6ncesinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, Sterlin\u2019in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131 potansiyelinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in tavanl\u0131 (capped) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 veya k\u0131sa vadeli bant\/aray\u0131\u015f (range-bound) stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. BoE\u2019nin \u015fahin tonda faizi sabit tutmas\u0131na ve \u0130ngiltere perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelmesine ra\u011fmen, GBP\/USD paritesi kritik diren\u00e7 seviyelerini a\u015fmakta zorlan\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, \u015fahin merkez bankas\u0131 \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bir para birimini anlaml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ima edilen volatilitenin s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da iron condor gibi prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejilerini daha etkili hale getirebiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, 1,3320 seviyesindeki kritik deste\u011fi yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Benzer piyasa kurulumlar\u0131nda ge\u00e7mi\u015f CFTC \u201ccommitment of traders\u201d verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu t\u00fcr \u00f6nemli teknik tabanlar\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde spek\u00fclatif uzun (long) pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclme e\u011filiminde. 1,3300 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 tavsiye edilir; zira bu b\u00f6lgenin alt\u0131na sarkma, orta vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f trend \u00e7izgisine do\u011fru daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Yukar\u0131 tarafta ise 1,3480 \u00e7evresinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ana diren\u00e7 bulundu\u011funu ve bunun, do\u011frudan uzun al\u0131m opsiyonu (long call) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ayl\u0131k bazda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc %1,0 art\u0131\u015fla beklentileri a\u015fm\u0131\u015f olsa da, Sterlin\u2019in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepkisi, olumlu ivmenin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sermayeyi korumak ad\u0131na, mevcut uzun Sterlin pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n, paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) ile korunmas\u0131n\u0131n en temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin\u2019de s\u00fcrpriz perakende sat\u0131\u015flara ra\u011fmen ralli neden gelmedi? BoE\u2019nin \u015fahin \u2018bekle-g\u00f6r\u2019 duru\u015fu GBP\/USD\u2019yi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. 1,3320 destek, 1,3480 diren\u00e7; volatilite s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131rken range ve prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49995,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t