ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri, Fed\u2019in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) enflasyon risklerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131na kat\u0131larak para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131yla Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi 5% seviyesine do\u011fru alt\u0131 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde t\u0131rmand\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc 5,041% seviyesinin \u2014 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye \u2014 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin enflasyon \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 endi\u015felerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
BoJ, 7\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 2 oyla politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak 1,25%\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131 ve b\u00f6ylece 31 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Fed ise oybirli\u011fiyle 25 baz puanl\u0131k benzer bir art\u0131\u015fa gitti; bu, \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l aradan sonra ilk art\u0131\u015f olurken, enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 2% hedefinin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu yineledi. Para piyasalar\u0131 2026 sonuna kadar ilave 34 baz puan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131; bu arada Prime Terminal Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 55%, Aral\u0131k\u2019ta ise 90% olarak hesaplad\u0131. ABD sanayi \u00fcretimi Temmuz\u2019dan A\u011fustos\u2019a ayl\u0131k bazda 0% ile de\u011fi\u015fmezken, Temmuz ay\u0131ndaki 0,2%\u2019nin ve 0,3% art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta Fed yetkililerinin konu\u015fmalar\u0131, istihdam verileri, S&P \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri takip edilecek.<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin 5% civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi bu ortamda, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda getiriler \u00fczerinde s\u00fcrebilecek yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Likit Hazine vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almak veya TLT gibi uzun vadeli tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu sat\u0131n almak h\u00e2l\u00e2 son derece etkili bir strateji. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Ekim 2023\u2019te 5,02%\u2019ye benzer bir hareketin sabit getirili varl\u0131klarda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesi gibi tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclerle de destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019nin faizi 1,25%\u2019e y\u00fckselten tarihi karar\u0131, k\u00fcresel yen carry trade\u2019inin h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sermayeyi \u00fclkeye geri ta\u015f\u0131malar\u0131yla sert yukar\u0131 hareketleri yakalamak i\u00e7in Japon Yeni (JPY\/USD) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f para politikas\u0131 ayarlamalar\u0131nda, BoJ\u2019den gelen k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u015fahin sinyallerin bile tarihsel olarak yo\u011fun kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
T\u0131rmanan jeopolitik gerilimler Brent petrol\u00fc yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak k\u00fcresel enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk ekledi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak amac\u0131yla ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Daha y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 90% olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD sanayi \u00fcretiminin 0% ile yatay kalmas\u0131, enflasyon y\u00fckselirken b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ivme kaybetti\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011finden, hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 zorlu bir d\u00f6neme giriyor. Ani piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine haz\u0131rl\u0131k i\u00e7in S&P 500\u2019de koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya VIX\u2019te uzun al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130stihdam verileri ve PMI\u2019lar dahil yakla\u015fan makroekonomik raporlar\u0131n, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu daha y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131na uyum sa\u011flamas\u0131yla sert fiyat hareketlerini tetiklemesi olas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar alarm veriyor: Fed ve BoJ\u2019un faiz hamleleriyle ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %5\u2019e t\u0131rman\u0131yor, petrol jeopolitik riskle y\u00fckseliyor. Tahvil k\u0131sa\/put, JPY call, S&P put\/VIX call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t