ABD dolar\u0131, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi\u2019nin (FOMC) \u015fahin bir ton tutturmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesine y\u00fckselirken, sert seyreden ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da hareketi destekledi. Dolar Endeksi 100,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak iki ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine ula\u015ft\u0131 ve \u00fcst \u00fcste iki haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini k\u0131rd\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta takvim; 21 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Chicago Fed Ulusal Aktivite Endeksi ile ba\u015fl\u0131yor. 22 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi ve Amerikan Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn (API) haftal\u0131k ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131 verisi izlenecek. 23 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de MBA Mortgage Ba\u015fvurular\u0131, \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global \u0130malat ve Hizmet PMI\u2019lar\u0131 ve Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) haftal\u0131k ham petrol stoklar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. 24 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ise Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131, Cari Denge, Yeni Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve Trump\u2013Xi zirvesi takip edilecek. 10 Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in \u00dcretici Fiyatlar\u0131, Mevcut Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve bir EIA ham petrol stoklar\u0131 raporu listelenirken, Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri ve Michigan \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nin nihai g\u00fcven endeksi takvimi tamamlayacak.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda EUR\/USD d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1450\u2019ye, yedi haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine, geni\u015fletti. Euro B\u00f6lgesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 22 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de, Almanya ve EMU i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global PMI\u2019lar 23 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; bunlar\u0131 24 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Almanya IFO \u0130\u015f \u0130klimi ve 25 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de GfK t\u00fcketici verisi izleyecek. GBP\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3330\u2019a gerilerken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k takviminde 22 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Kamu Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc Net Bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131, 23 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global PMI\u2019lar, 24 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de CBI Da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m Ticareti ve 25 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de GfK t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni yer al\u0131yor. USD\/JPY 158,00\u2019e yakla\u015farak iki haftan\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; takvimde yaln\u0131zca \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global PMI\u2019lar bulunuyor. AUD\/USD ise A\u011fustos ortas\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez 0,7070 seviyesini yeniden test etti; 23 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de PMI\u2019lar ve 24 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Avustralya istihdam raporu izlenecek. Merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda 21 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de PBoC, 22 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de MNB, 23 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de BI (RBSA ile birlikte) ve BI\u2019dan 6,00\u2019a faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, 24 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ise Riksbank, Norges Bank, SNB ve Banxico \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) kritik 100,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde tutunurken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131ndaki hakimiyetin s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed\u2019in son \u015fahin duru\u015funun ABD tahvil getirilerini y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131\u2014benzer s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde tarihsel olarak 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirinin yeniden %4,0 civar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesiyle\u2014uzun USD pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131lmaya devam ediyor. 21 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ba\u015flayacak yo\u011fun ekonomik takvim \u00f6ncesinde, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck geri \u00e7ekilmelerde USD al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 aranabilir.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar civar\u0131ndaki kilit direnci test etmesiyle ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki kesintisiz g\u00fc\u00e7, enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor ve enerji t\u00fcrevlerini destekliyor. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in Brent veya WTI \u00fczerinde bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadleri (bull call spread) kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 23 ve 25 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak EIA stok verileri, bu enerji pozisyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik oynakl\u0131k kataliz\u00f6rleri olacak.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131 piyasas\u0131nda, her iki paritenin de belirgin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olmas\u0131 nedeniyle EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. EUR\/USD 1,1450 civar\u0131ndaki yedi haftan\u0131n diplerine sarkt\u0131; 23 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de zay\u0131f Euro B\u00f6lgesi PMI verileri pariteyi kolayl\u0131kla daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Benzer \u015fekilde GBP\/USD 1,3330 b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda k\u0131r\u0131lgan; yakla\u015fan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni verileri \u00f6ncesinde sterlin k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 rasyonel bir tercih olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin bir mesaj verememesi USD\/JPY\u2019yi yeniden 158,00 seviyesine do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Japon yeninin, gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131n\u0131n uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde tarihsel olarak dolara kar\u015f\u0131 %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131k bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara USD\/JPY\u2019de al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 stratejiler kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131, ancak olas\u0131 resmi m\u00fcdahale seviyelerini yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yo\u011fun merkez bankas\u0131 faiz kararlar\u0131 takvimi ve 24 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yap\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen Trump\u2013Xi Zirvesi, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli k\u0131sa vadeli al-sat f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. G\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifesi anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek riskli ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda tarihsel olarak s\u0131\u00e7rama e\u011filimi g\u00f6steren VIX gibi oynakl\u0131k endeksleri, maj\u00f6r hisse endeksleri \u00fczerinde straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek getiri potansiyeli sunabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Jeopolitik man\u015fetlerin piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 gece boyunca h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ftirebilmesi nedeniyle esnek ve \u00e7evik kalmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar FOMC\u2019nin \u015fahinli\u011fiyle 7 haftan\u0131n zirvesinde; DXY 100 \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Petrol 80$ e\u015fi\u011fini zorluyor. Yo\u011fun veri ve merkez bankalar\u0131 haftas\u0131; opsiyonlarda USD long, petrolde bull spread, EUR\/GBP put \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68588","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t