USD\/CHF, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hafta sonuna girerken ivme kaybetmesiyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi; Fed\u2019in \u015fahin 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla politika faizini %3,75\u2013%4,00 band\u0131na y\u00fckseltmesinin destekledi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc haftan\u0131n ard\u0131ndan k\u00e2r realizasyonlar\u0131 etkili oldu. Parite, hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 0,8250\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra 0,8220 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeydi. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 100,56 tepesinden 100,26\u2019ya do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi. Faiz taraf\u0131nda, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi %5,00 civar\u0131nda seyretti; bu oran, hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %5,04\u2019e yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n\n
Getiriler, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n enerji arz\u0131 risklerini y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalan petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan destek buldu. Fed\u2019in noktasal grafi\u011fi (dot plot), 18 yetkiliden 16\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, son veriler enflasyonun %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n parite, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yans\u0131tarak \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fini kaydetmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor; \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) politika faizini %0\u2019da tutarken piyasalar gelecek haftaki karar\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Ayr\u0131ca, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) politika normalle\u015fmesi ve Japon faizlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin Yen\u2019in fonlama para birimi cazibesini azaltmas\u0131yla, Frang\u0131n carry trade i\u015flemlerinde kullan\u0131m\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, 0,8220\u2019ye do\u011fru bu ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilmeyi USD\/CHF bull call spread\u2019leriyle uzun pozisyon in\u015fa etmek i\u00e7in kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed\u2019in politika faizini %3,75-%4,00 band\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131yla \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin %0 faizine kar\u015f\u0131 geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131, dolar\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. 0,8300 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken bir sonraki yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Gelecek haftaki SNB\u2019nin kritik politika karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, USD\/CHF opsiyonlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli ima edilen volatilite %7,2\u2019ye do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Bu daha pahal\u0131 opsiyon ortam\u0131ndan, kullan\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 satarak yararlanabiliriz. Bu strateji, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019nda zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi senaryosunda pozisyon al\u0131rken cazip prim geliri toplamaya olanak verir.<\/p>\n\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin kritik %5,00 seviyesini test ederken yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. Jeopolitik endi\u015felerle Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131, y\u00fcksek getirileri destekliyor. Bu sa\u011flam getiri zemini, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirili para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 destekli kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, carry trade stratejilerinde birincil fonlama para birimi olarak \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. BoJ\u2019un faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, Yen\u2019le bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131 daha maliyetli h\u00e2le getirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, s\u0131f\u0131r faizli Frank piyasada \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan fonlama tercihi konumuna geldi. \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131 vadeli piyasada y\u00fcksek getirili ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda satarak, geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131ndan istikrarl\u0131 getiri elde etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasada g\u00f6zler SNB\u2019de: USD\/CHF, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla 0,8220\u2019ye \u00e7ekildi. DXY gev\u015fedi, ABD 10Y %5\u2019te. Faiz fark\u0131 dolar lehine; bull call spread\/carry \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t