Dow Jones Sanayi Ortalamas\u0131 51.500 civar\u0131nda seyretti; \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n durdu\u011fu seviyeye geri \u00e7ekilerek Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc toparlanmay\u0131 sildi. Endeks, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan yeniden %5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla birlikte art arda \u00fc\u00e7 seansta daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tepe (lower high) yapt\u0131. ABD taraf\u0131nda tek veri sanayi \u00fcretimiydi ve %0 geldi. Sanayi \u00fcretimi A\u011fustos\u2019ta %0 ile %0,3 beklentinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, Temmuz\u2019daki %0,2\u2019nin ard\u0131ndan yatay seyretti. Bu veri, endeks ad\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi faaliyetle yak\u0131ndan ili\u015fkili olsa da, madenciler ve kamu hizmetleri (utilities) 30 hisselik listede yer alm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Dow bile\u015fenlerinden yaln\u0131zca d\u00f6rd\u00fc \u201csanayi\u201d olarak s\u0131n\u0131flan\u0131yor\u2014Caterpillar, Honeywell, Boeing ve 3M\u2014ve birlikte endeksin %15,7\u2019sini olu\u015fturuyor; bu pay, \u201csanayi\u201d etiketi 1896\u2019ya dayanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, be\u015f finans hissesinin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n biraz \u00fczerindeki yar\u0131s\u0131 kadar. Caterpillar 2026\u2019da %36\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015fken, 3M %2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda art\u0131da, Boeing ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 ekside; bu da Caterpillar\u2019\u0131n %9\u2019luk a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fcn toplam\u0131ndan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Piyasalar \u015fimdi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 13:45 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00f6nc\u00fc (flash) anketlere odaklan\u0131yor: imalat\u0131n 53,9\u2019dan 53,6\u2019ya, hizmetlerin 56,5\u2019ten 56\u2019ya gerilemesi bekleniyor. Cuma 12:30 GMT\u2019de dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015flerinin %1,1 sonras\u0131 -%0,5 olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 196 bin sonras\u0131 202 bin, Michigan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 47,8; bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi daha \u00f6nce %4,6 idi. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %5,30\u2019un \u00fczerinde; Fed projeksiyonlar\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu bu y\u0131l %3,4, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi %2,3 ve i\u015fsizli\u011fi %4,1 g\u00f6steriyor; %2 enflasyonun 2029\u2019a kadar g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi beklenmiyor. Teknik seviyelerde diren\u00e7 52.000\u2019de ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 52.600\u2019e yak\u0131n; destek 51.500\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 51.200 ve 51.000. Stoch RSI 24 civar\u0131nda; 52.000 \u00fczerinde bir kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n
Dow Jones Sanayi Ortalamas\u0131 51.500 seviyesi civar\u0131nda zorlan\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa (short) a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 korumas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Endeksin ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tepeler \u00fcretmesi ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stochastic RSI\u2019\u0131n 24 civar\u0131na gerilemesi, al\u0131m bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 51.200 ve 51.000 hedeflerine odaklanan kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla (strike) k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizinin yeniden %5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, Boeing gibi sermaye yo\u011fun \u015firketler i\u00e7in belirgin bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviriyor. Tarihsel olarak, faizlerin 2023 sonlar\u0131nda %5 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde, artan \u015firket bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri nedeniyle ba\u015fl\u0131ca hisse endeksleri takip eden bir ayda ortalama %4 geri \u00e7ekilme ya\u015fad\u0131. Daha geni\u015f bir piyasa sat\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, uzun (long) hisse portf\u00f6ylerini tahvil ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlarla hedge etmeyi veya CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Sanayi \u00fcretiminin %0 ile yatay kalmas\u0131, imalat taraf\u0131nda ivme kayb\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu nedenle yakla\u015fan dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal verisi ve flash PMI\u2019lar yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Caterpillar endeksin %9\u2019u gibi y\u00fcksek bir pay\u0131 temsil etti\u011finden, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015flerinde beklenen -%0,5\u2019lik daralmaya k\u0131yasla olas\u0131 bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcm ortalamay\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Taktik i\u015flem yapanlar, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde veya do\u011frudan Caterpillar\u2019da ay\u0131 (bear) put spread stratejileriyle bu spesifik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131ktan faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, endeksin yakla\u015f\u0131k %10\u2019unu ta\u015f\u0131yan t\u00fcketim d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel (consumer discretionary) devlerini do\u011frudan etkileyen haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve Michigan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksine de haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. Enflasyon beklentilerinin %4,6 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d sinyali vermesi nedeniyle t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 y\u00fcksek k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcketici a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek ETF\u2019lerde standart straddle stratejileri, hafta sonuna do\u011fru gelecek bu veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n etraf\u0131ndaki ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakalayabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlarda s\u0131k\u0131 bir zarar-kes (stop-loss) uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc 52.000 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, short tezini ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar. Bu diren\u00e7 a\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li yol 51.200\u2019deki Haziran dip seviyesine do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131nda ilerlerken, bu t\u00fcrev kurgularda disiplinli bir risk-getiri oran\u0131n\u0131 korumak kritik olacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dow 51.500\u2019de tutunam\u0131yor: 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz yeniden %5 \u00fcst\u00fcnde, endekste \u00fc\u00e7 seansta \u201clower high\u201d. Sanayi \u00fcretimi %0. G\u00f6zler flash PMI ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mallarda. 52.000 \u00fcst\u00fc kapan\u0131\u015f trendi de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50024,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t