{"id":68577,"date":"2026-09-18T19:51:38","date_gmt":"2026-09-18T19:51:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fed-faiz-artiriminin-ardindan-eur-usd-11500nin-altina-geriledi-petrol-soku-riskleri-dolar-talebini-yeniden-canlandirdi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-18T19:51:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-18T19:51:38","slug":"fed-faiz-artiriminin-ardindan-eur-usd-11500nin-altina-geriledi-petrol-soku-riskleri-dolar-talebini-yeniden-canlandirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-faiz-artiriminin-ardindan-eur-usd-11500nin-altina-geriledi-petrol-soku-riskleri-dolar-talebini-yeniden-canlandirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan EUR\/USD 1,1500\u2019nin alt\u0131na geriledi; petrol \u015foku riskleri dolar talebini yeniden canland\u0131rd\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD haftay\u0131 1,1500 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kapat\u0131rken, Fed\u2019in faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak Fed Fon Hedef Aral\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131 %3,75\u2013%4,00 seviyesine y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00e7ok haftal\u0131 dip olan 1,1454\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerinde tutundu. Enflasyon Mart 2021\u2019den bu yana Fed\u2019in hedefinin \u00fczerinde seyrediyor ve 2025 boyunca gev\u015femesi beklense de, geni\u015fleyen Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 bir enerji \u015fokuyla ili\u015fkilendirilen yenilenen bask\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksamalar tedarik rotalar\u0131na oda\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar \u00f6ncesinde k\u00fcresel ham petrol ve petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %25\u2019i bu ge\u00e7itten ge\u00e7iyor, bu ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n %80\u2019inden fazlas\u0131 ise Asya \u00fclkelerine gidiyordu. Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti (SEP), y\u0131l sonuna kadar ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ederken, Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh %2 enflasyon hedefini yineledi ve ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme vermedi.<\/p>\n\n

Merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatland\u0131ktan sonra, odak yeniden petrole, Fed ve ECB konu\u015fmac\u0131lar\u0131na ve \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc S&P Global ve yerel bankalardan gelecek \u00f6nc\u00fc eyl\u00fcl PMI verilerine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Grafiklerde EUR\/USD 1,1470 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 1,1548\u2019in, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 1,1593\u2019\u00fcn ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 1,1629\u2019un alt\u0131nda bulunuyor; parite ayr\u0131ca 20 haftal\u0131k SMA olan 1,1543\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda, ancak 100 ve 200 haftal\u0131k SMA\u2019lar olan 1,1349 ve 1,1087\u2019nin \u00fczerinde. RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 44 seviyesinde; destek 1,1450 civar\u0131nda ve ard\u0131ndan 1,1350 b\u00f6lgesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, diren\u00e7 1,1543, 1,1600, 1,1629 ve a\u011fustos zirvesi 1,1710\u2019da izleniyor.<\/p>\n\n

EUR\/USD i\u00e7in G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve T\u00fcrev Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1500 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n parite \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, kritik destek seviyesi olan 1,1350\u2019yi hedefleyen kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Teknik g\u00f6stergeler artan sat\u0131\u015f momentumu g\u00f6steriyor; bu durum tarihsel olarak \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k dip seviyelerin test edilmesinin \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n

Enerji Piyasalar\u0131, Faiz Riski ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, enflasyon kanal\u0131 \u00fczerinden do\u011frudan ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc besleyece\u011finden petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki dalgalanmalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) belirtti\u011fi \u00fczere, g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol\u00fcn\u2014k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen\u2014bu g\u00fczergahtan ge\u00e7ti\u011fi dev bir jeopolitik bo\u011faz noktas\u0131 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Enerji arz\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler devam ederken ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya uzun USD proxy pozisyonlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek cazibesini koruyor.<\/p>\n\n

Fed\u2019in politika faizini %3,75\u2013%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltmesiyle, opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na daha gidilmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019in enerji arz \u015foklar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u015fahin bir duru\u015f benimsemesi, maj\u00f6r d\u00f6viz paritelerinde ima edilen volatilitenin belirgin \u015fekilde artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. EUR\/USD\u2019de uzun straddle gibi volatilite stratejileri, piyasalar\u0131n jeopolitik man\u015fetler ile yakla\u015fan makroekonomik veriler aras\u0131nda sal\u0131nmas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc getiri potansiyeli sunabilir.<\/p>\n\n

EUR\/USD\u2019nin 20 haftal\u0131k Basit Hareketli Ortalama olan 1,1543\u2019e do\u011fru bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi denemesi halinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 veya ay\u0131 call spread yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 1,1450 destek b\u00f6lgesinin alt\u0131nda net bir kapan\u0131\u015f, k\u0131sa delta maruziyetini art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. Bu pozisyonlar\u0131 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 1,1629 civar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleriyle korumak, son derece \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez bu i\u015flem ortam\u0131nda risklerin s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed\u2019in 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 EUR\/USD 1,1500 alt\u0131nda, 1,1454 dip \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunuyor: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015foku enflasyonu ve dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir. G\u00f6zler PMI, petrol; 1,1450 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,1350 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68577","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t