ABD dolar\u0131 G10 para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dar bantta kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyrederken, yen Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BOJ) gecelik faiz hedefini 7\u20132 oyla %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,25 geriledi. Piyasalar, olas\u0131l\u0131klar k\u0131smen t\u00f6rp\u00fclense de Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir hamleyi h\u00e2l\u00e2 %80\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor; dolar, JPY156\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine JPY158\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama JPY158,40 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor; bu seviye, temmuz sonundaki zirvelerden %50 geri \u00e7ekilmeye yak\u0131n. \u00c7in\u2019de PBOC, dolar\u0131 sekizinci ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k seansta daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fixing\u2019le \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine \u00e7ekti; offshore dolar\/yuan d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n dibi olan CNH6,6935\u2019e geriledi. Fixing, 8 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de CNY6,78\u2019in hemen \u00fczerindeyken bu hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda CNY6,77\u2019nin biraz alt\u0131na, bug\u00fcn ise d\u00fcnk\u00fc CNY6,7580\u2019den CNY6,7521\u2019e indi. EUR\/USD, yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,2 milyar euroluk opsiyon vadesinin etkisiyle 1,15 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; sterlin ise a\u011fustos perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda beklentileri a\u015fan %0,5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen 1,3335 dolara yakla\u015fan geri \u00e7ekilme sonras\u0131 1,3350 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde dengelendi.<\/p>\n
Faiz taraf\u0131nda, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi yedi seansl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fi sonland\u0131rarak 8 baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle %4,95\u2019e inerken, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri haftal\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 baz puan artarak %4,71\u2019in biraz \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Avrupa Stoxx 600, %0,85\u2019lik kazanc\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Alt\u0131n %1,8 y\u00fckselerek 4.400 dolara yakla\u015f\u0131rken, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f %3,6 art\u0131\u015fla 67,35 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131; ekim vadeli WTI 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sark\u0131p neredeyse 102,50 dolara toparland\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,40\u2013101,65 dolar band\u0131nda konsolide oldu; 100,05 dolar seviyesi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in referans oldu. ABD verileri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti: Atlanta Fed\u2019in GSYH takip g\u00f6stergesi 3\u00c7 i\u00e7in %5,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; sanayi \u00fcretimi ve imalat \u00fcretiminin, %0,2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %0,3 y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde temmuz cari fazla 27,6 milyar euro ile bir y\u0131l \u00f6nceki 22,3 milyar euronun \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; yedi ayl\u0131k ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k 26,3 milyar euroya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 24,61 milyar euro seviyesindeydi. ECB enflasyon beklentileri 1 y\u0131ll\u0131kta %3,0\u2019a, 3 y\u0131ll\u0131kta %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Japonya\u2019da a\u011fustos T\u00dcFE man\u015fet %1,9, \u00e7ekirdek %1,7 oldu; BOJ bu y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi %0,6 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Son bir ayda ABD, Almanya ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirileri yakla\u015f\u0131k 25 baz puan y\u00fckselirken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131nki 3 baz puan\u0131n alt\u0131nda artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
BOJ\u2019un faizi %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan dolar\u0131n JPY 158,40 civar\u0131ndaki kritik teknik direnci test etmesiyle Japon yenini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. Japonya 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizlerindeki de\u011fi\u015fim ile USD\/JPY paritesi aras\u0131ndaki 30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck korelasyonun -0,05 ile hafif tersine d\u00f6nmesi, kur hareketlerini yaln\u0131zca faiz farklar\u0131yla \u00f6ng\u00f6rmenin etkisiz kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun yerine, \u00f6zellikle piyasan\u0131n Aral\u0131k\u2019ta bir BOJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %80 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, olas\u0131 volatiliteyi yakalamak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131yla i\u015flem yapmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde, euronun 1,15 dolar seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda konsolide olmas\u0131 ve yo\u011fun opsiyon vadelerinin bu b\u00f6lgede k\u00fcmelenmesi nedeniyle k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu konsolidasyon, bu hafta sonu Berlin ve Mecklenburg-Vorpommern\u2019deki kritik eyalet se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor; se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 koalisyon kurma s\u00fcrecini uzatabilir ve para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Tarihsel veriler, Almanya\u2019da uzayan siyasi belirsizli\u011fin genellikle euroyu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma ya da bant i\u00e7i stratejileri cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca ABD ile Kanada aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131ndan yararlanmaya odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z; bu fark ABD\u2019nin 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k primini Kanada\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine 140 baz puan\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n 1,40 CAD seviyesini yoklad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Atlanta Fed\u2019in 3\u00c7 GSYH takip g\u00f6stergesinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde %5,1\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir tabloda, dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu destekleniyor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar, makro ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread\u2019lerle bir sonraki teknik direnci CAD 1,4050\u2019de hedefleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.400 dolara yakla\u015fmas\u0131 ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn kritik trend \u00e7izgilerini k\u0131rarak 67,35 dolara \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla de\u011ferli metallerdeki patlay\u0131c\u0131 momentumu g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyiz. Alt\u0131nda 4.432\u20134.445 dolar band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde temiz bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik riskler ve k\u00fcresel ticaretteki yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmlerle desteklenen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 teyit edecektir. \u00d6nemli miktarda sermaye ba\u011flamadan bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc momentumu yakalamak i\u00e7in g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ve alt\u0131nda uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" BOJ s\u00fcrpriziyle yen %1,25 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; USD\/JPY 158,40 direncini test ediyor. PBOC fixing\u2019leri yuan\u0131 4 y\u0131l\u0131n dibine itti. Alt\u0131n 4.400\u2019e, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 67\u2019ye ko\u015fuyor; ABD getirileri geriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50118,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t